Emmen
vs
Den Bosch
Garuda Lions Prediction: Emmen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Emmen vs Den Bosch overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Emmen vs Den Bosch
| Probability | Emmen | Draw | Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.8% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.8% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Emmen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Emmen vs Den Bosch match preview
Emmen is set to face Den Bosch in the Eerste Divisie, with a probability of 58% for an Emmen victory, while a draw stands at 22% and Den Bosch at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Emmen, which has a 10% chance of occurring. The expected goals are 2.11 for Emmen and 1.17 for Den Bosch, suggesting a high-scoring match, with a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Emmen has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Den Bosch has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The last two encounters between these teams have seen Emmen secure one win and one draw, with Den Bosch yet to claim a victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Emmen and Den Bosch expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Emmen and Den Bosch attack and defence ratings
Emmen
Den Bosch
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Emmen vs Den Bosch markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 57.8% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Den Bosch | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 42.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Emmen vs Den Bosch stats
Emmen and Den Bosch recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Emmen and Den Bosch season so far
Emmen record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Den Bosch record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Emmen vs Den Bosch head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Den Bosch | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Emmen | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.