Emmen
vs
MVV
Garuda Lions Prediction: Emmen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.06.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Emmen vs MVV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Emmen vs MVV
| Probability | Emmen | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.5% | 17.8% | 12.6% |
| Market | 61.0% | 21.2% | 17.8% |
| Final | 63.1% | 20.4% | 16.5% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -0.8% | -1.3% |
Why Emmen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Emmen below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (our 63.1% × 1.56 − 1).
Emmen vs MVV match preview
Emmen enters the match against MVV with a strong probability of winning at 70%, reflecting their recent form of one loss in the last six matches, including four consecutive victories. The expected goals for Emmen stand at 2.59, suggesting a potent attacking performance, while MVV struggles with an expected goal tally of just 1.06 and has lost their last six matches.
The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams scoring is projected at 61%. Historically, Emmen has won one of the last two encounters with MVV, who has yet to secure a draw in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Emmen and MVV expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.65
Emmen and MVV attack and defence ratings
Emmen
MVV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Emmen vs MVV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 63.1% | 1.58 | +2.1% | 1.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 63.1% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| MVV | 16.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win | 48.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 30.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |
Emmen vs MVV stats
Emmen and MVV recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Emmen and MVV season so far
Emmen record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
MVV record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emmen vs MVV head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Emmen | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | MVV | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Emmen vs MVV odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 21.2%, away 17.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.45 | 5.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.45 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.40 | 5.22 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 3.98 | 4.69 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .