NAC Breda
vs
Emmen
4 – 2 Full time
NAC Breda vs Emmen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NAC Breda vs Emmen
| Probability | NAC Breda | Draw | Emmen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 24.0% | 19.6% |
| Market | 61.1% | 21.0% | 17.9% |
| Final | 60.0% | 21.8% | 18.3% |
| Edge | -1.2% | +0.8% | +0.4% |
Why NAC Breda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.07.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NAC Breda and Emmen expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
NAC Breda and Emmen attack and defence ratings
NAC Breda
Emmen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
NAC Breda vs Emmen: result vs prediction
NAC Breda 4 – 2 Emmen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
NAC Breda vs Emmen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 60.0% | 1.67 | -1.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 60.0% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Emmen | 18.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% |
| No | 42.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
NAC Breda vs Emmen stats
NAC Breda and Emmen recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NAC Breda and Emmen going into this match
NAC Breda record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
Emmen record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NAC Breda vs Emmen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-25 | Emmen | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2024-05-21 | NAC Breda | Emmen | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-13 | Emmen | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2023-09-22 | NAC Breda | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2023-06-03 | Emmen | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-31 | NAC Breda | Emmen | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2022-01-22 | Emmen | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-17 | NAC Breda | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2021-05-20 | Emmen | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2019-10-29 | NAC Breda | Emmen | KNVB Beker | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NAC Breda vs Emmen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.1%, draw 21.0%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.45 | 5.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.45 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.67 | 5.43 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 4.13 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .