Dordrecht
vs
Heracles
1 – 2 Full time
Dordrecht vs Heracles overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dordrecht vs Heracles
| Probability | Dordrecht | Draw | Heracles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9.0% | 14.5% | 76.6% |
| Market | 13.6% | 18.5% | 67.9% |
| Final | 12.5% | 17.5% | 70.1% |
| Edge | -1.2% | -1.0% | +2.2% |
Why Heracles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Heracles below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dordrecht and Heracles expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.96
Dordrecht and Heracles attack and defence ratings
Dordrecht
Heracles
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Dordrecht vs Heracles: result vs prediction
Dordrecht 1 – 2 Heracles
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dordrecht vs Heracles markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 70.1% | 1.43 | +2.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dordrecht | 12.5% |
| Draw | 17.5% | |
| Heracles | 70.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 57.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 23.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 0-3 | 8.3% |
Dordrecht vs Heracles stats
Dordrecht and Heracles recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dordrecht and Heracles going into this match
Dordrecht record
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
Heracles record
- They have won 11 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dordrecht vs Heracles head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-05 | Dordrecht | Heracles | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2022-12-16 | Heracles | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 8-1 |
| 2019-12-18 | Heracles | Dordrecht | KNVB Beker | 3-0 |
| 2015-04-04 | Dordrecht | Heracles | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2014-12-12 | Heracles | Dordrecht | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dordrecht vs Heracles odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.6%, draw 18.5%, away 67.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.81 | 5.20 | 1.35 |
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| Betano | 7.10 | 4.85 | 1.38 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 7.00 | 5.60 | 1.37 |
| Marathonbet | 6.75 | 5.20 | 1.34 |
| Pinnacle | 6.68 | 5.54 | 1.39 |
| SBO | 5.80 | 4.84 | 1.34 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .