MVV
vs
Vitesse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vitesse
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vitesse is the favourite, not a value bet.
MVV vs Vitesse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MVV vs Vitesse
| Probability | MVV | Draw | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.7% | 28.0% | 44.3% |
| Market | 30.5% | 25.8% | 43.7% |
| Final | 29.8% | 26.4% | 43.8% |
| Edge | -0.7% | +0.6% | +0.2% |
Why Vitesse
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 43.8% × 2.19 − 1).
MVV vs Vitesse match preview
In the upcoming Eerste Divisie match, MVV faces Vitesse with a kickoff scheduled for November 15, 2026. According to our model, Vitesse holds a 51% probability of winning, while MVV has a 23% chance and a draw stands at 27%. The expected goals for MVV are 1.05, in contrast to Vitesse's 1.67, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
Recent form shows MVV struggling with six consecutive matches without a win, while Vitesse has had a mixed run with two wins in their last six games. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
MVV and Vitesse expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
MVV and Vitesse attack and defence ratings
MVV
Vitesse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
MVV vs Vitesse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 43.8% | 2.28 | +0.2% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MVV | 29.8% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Vitesse | 43.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
MVV vs Vitesse stats
MVV and Vitesse recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
MVV and Vitesse season so far
MVV record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitesse record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MVV vs Vitesse head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Vitesse | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-21 | MVV | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Vitesse | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-06 | MVV | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
MVV vs Vitesse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.5%, draw 25.8%, away 43.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.56 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.65 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 3.08 | 3.56 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.11 | 3.59 | 2.17 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.28 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .