De Graafschap
vs
MVV
Garuda Lions Prediction: De Graafschap
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.22.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
De Graafschap vs MVV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: De Graafschap vs MVV
| Probability | De Graafschap | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.0% | 25.2% | 24.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.0% | 25.2% | 24.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why De Graafschap
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
De Graafschap vs MVV match preview
De Graafschap hosts MVV in the Eerste Divisie with a kickoff scheduled for November 20, 2026. According to our model, De Graafschap has a 50% chance of winning, while both a draw and an MVV victory are rated at 25%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of De Graafschap, with an expected goals tally of 1.81 for De Graafschap and 1.22 for MVV.
Recent form shows De Graafschap with a mixed record of W-L-D-L-W-D, while MVV has struggled, recording W-L-L-D-L-L. In their last two encounters, De Graafschap has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to MVV. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with over 2.5 goals expected at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
De Graafschap and MVV expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
De Graafschap and MVV attack and defence ratings
De Graafschap
MVV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
De Graafschap vs MVV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 50.0% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| MVV | 24.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | De Graafschap win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 50.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
De Graafschap vs MVV stats
De Graafschap and MVV recent form
| De Graafschap |
WLDLWD |
| MVV |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
De Graafschap and MVV season so far
De Graafschap record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MVV record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
De Graafschap vs MVV head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | MVV | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 3-3 |
| 2025-08-22 | De Graafschap | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.