Almere City FC
vs
NAC Breda
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almere City FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.13.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda
| Probability | Almere City FC | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.1% | 27.1% | 25.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.1% | 27.1% | 25.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Almere City FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.13.
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda match preview
Almere City FC is projected to have a 47% chance of winning their match against NAC Breda, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1, occurring 9% of the time according to our model. The expected goals for Almere City FC stand at 1.61, while NAC Breda is expected to score 1.13. With a probability of 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, this match could see a competitive offensive display.
In terms of recent form, Almere City FC has recorded three wins, two losses, and one draw in their last six matches. Conversely, NAC Breda has shown strong performance with four wins and two draws in their recent fixtures. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almere City FC and NAC Breda expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Almere City FC and NAC Breda attack and defence ratings
Almere City FC
NAC Breda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 47.1% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| NAC Breda | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% |
| No | 44.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda stats
Almere City FC and NAC Breda recent form
| Almere City FC |
WWWLLW |
| NAC Breda |
DWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almere City FC and NAC Breda season so far
Almere City FC record
- They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
NAC Breda record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.