Den Bosch
vs
VVV Venlo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Den Bosch
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.80.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo
| Probability | Den Bosch | Draw | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.2% | 22.2% | 32.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.2% | 22.2% | 32.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Den Bosch
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.80.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo match preview
Den Bosch faces VVV Venlo in their upcoming Eerste Divisie match, with Den Bosch holding a 45% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Den Bosch, which aligns with their expected goals of 2.13 compared to VVV Venlo's 1.80. Both teams have shown a propensity for scoring, with a 74% chance for both teams to find the net and a 75% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Den Bosch has recorded three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while VVV Venlo has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The last two encounters between the teams resulted in one win each, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Den Bosch and VVV Venlo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.93
Den Bosch and VVV Venlo attack and defence ratings
Den Bosch
VVV Venlo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 45.2% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| VVV Venlo | 32.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.3% |
| No | 25.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Den Bosch win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo stats
Den Bosch and VVV Venlo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Den Bosch and VVV Venlo season so far
Den Bosch record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
VVV Venlo record
- They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Den Bosch | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-30 | VVV Venlo | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.