Heracles
vs
Jong PSV U21
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heracles
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heracles vs Jong PSV U21
| Probability | Heracles | Draw | Jong PSV U21 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.2% | 15.9% | 7.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 76.2% | 15.9% | 7.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Heracles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 match preview
Heracles enters the match against Jong PSV U21 with a strong probability of winning at 76%. Their recent form shows a solid performance with three wins in their last five matches, contributing to an expected goals tally of 2.61. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%.
In contrast, Jong PSV U21 has struggled recently, recording only one win in their last six matches, which aligns with their expected goals of just 0.76. The model suggests a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score, indicating a potentially one-sided affair in favor of Heracles.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heracles and Jong PSV U21 expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Heracles and Jong PSV U21 attack and defence ratings
Heracles
Jong PSV U21
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.1% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 76.2% |
| Draw | 15.9% | |
| Jong PSV U21 | 7.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 55.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 23.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.7% |
| 3-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 stats
Heracles and Jong PSV U21 recent form
| Heracles |
WWLDWW |
| Jong PSV U21 |
DLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heracles and Jong PSV U21 season so far
Heracles record
- They have won 11 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong PSV U21 record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.