FC Volendam
vs
Jong Ajax
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Volendam
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.69.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax
| Probability | FC Volendam | Draw | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.3% | 19.0% | 22.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 58.3% | 19.0% | 22.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Volendam
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax match preview
FC Volendam hosts Jong Ajax in an Eerste Divisie match on November 20, 2026. According to our model, FC Volendam has a 58% probability of winning, while Jong Ajax stands at 23%, with a 19% chance of a draw. The expected goals for FC Volendam is 2.69 compared to Jong Ajax's 1.69, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at an 8% probability.
Recent form shows FC Volendam with three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Jong Ajax has two wins, three draws, and one loss. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams scoring at 77%, suggesting an engaging encounter with multiple scoring opportunities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Volendam and Jong Ajax expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.38
FC Volendam and Jong Ajax attack and defence ratings
FC Volendam
Jong Ajax
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Volendam | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Volendam | 58.3% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| Jong Ajax | 22.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.6% |
| No | 23.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Volendam win | 39.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 41.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.7% |
| 3-1 | 6.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% |
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax stats
FC Volendam and Jong Ajax recent form
| FC Volendam |
WLLWDW |
| Jong Ajax |
WDDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Volendam and Jong Ajax season so far
FC Volendam record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
Jong Ajax record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.