Vitesse
vs
Jong AZ
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vitesse
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Vitesse vs Jong AZ overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitesse vs Jong AZ
| Probability | Vitesse | Draw | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 24.0% | 32.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.3% | 24.0% | 32.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Vitesse vs Jong AZ match preview
Vitesse faces Jong AZ in the Eerste Divisie, with the model predicting a 43% chance of a Vitesse win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 33% chance for Jong AZ. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Vitesse, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game, with a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Vitesse with a record of D-W-L-W-L-D, while Jong AZ has L-L-W-D-L-W. In their last two encounters, Vitesse has one win and Jong AZ has one win. The expected goals for Vitesse stand at 1.87, while Jong AZ is projected at 1.61, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitesse and Jong AZ expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Vitesse and Jong AZ attack and defence ratings
Vitesse
Jong AZ
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitesse vs Jong AZ markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 43.3% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Jong AZ | 32.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 56.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Vitesse vs Jong AZ stats
Vitesse and Jong AZ recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitesse and Jong AZ season so far
Vitesse record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong AZ record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
Vitesse vs Jong AZ head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Vitesse | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Jong AZ | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.