Garuda Lions
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Eerste Divisie · ·Matchday 14

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

Garuda Lions Prediction: Almere City FC

1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.78.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Almere City FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Almere City FC

AFAS Trainingscomplex, Alkmaar

Jong AZ 33%
Draw 23%
Almere City FC 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Almere City FC wins
44%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
74%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
8% of simulated outcomes

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJong AZDrawAlmere City FC
Model31.5%22.0%46.4%
Market33.1%23.1%43.8%
Final32.7%22.9%44.4%
Edge-0.4%-0.3%+0.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Almere City FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.6% per unit staked (our 44.4% × 2.17 − 1).

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC match preview

Jong AZ faces Almere City FC in a matchup where Almere City holds a slight edge in the probabilities, with a 44% chance of winning compared to Jong AZ's 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, as the model suggests a 75% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance that both teams will score.

In terms of recent form, Jong AZ has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches. Conversely, Almere City FC has shown stronger form, winning four of their last six games. Historically, the head-to-head record is evenly matched, with both teams claiming five victories in their last ten encounters.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Jong AZ ↓ / Almere City FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 8% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Jong AZ and Almere City FC expected goals

Jong AZ 1.78
Almere City FC 2.16

Total expected goals: 3.94

Jong AZ and Almere City FC attack and defence ratings

Jong AZ

Attack 1.38 +38%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Almere City FC

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Almere City FC 44.4% 2.25 +0.7% 2.17
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.3% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.2% 1.35 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.1% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.6% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Jong AZ32.7%
Draw22.9%
Almere City FC44.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.3%
Under 2.524.7%
Both teams to scoreYes74.2%
No25.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.6%
12 (either side)77.1%
X2 (draw or away)67.3%
Handicap -1Almere City FC win27.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss53.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.2%
1-28.1%
2-27.2%
Compare prices for this pick

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC stats

Jong AZ and Almere City FC recent form

newest first
Jong AZ LWDLWD
Almere City FC WWLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Jong AZ and Almere City FC season so far

league record

Jong AZ record

  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.9 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.

Almere City FC record

  • They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Jong AZ wins 0Draws 5Almere City FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-26Jong AZAlmere City FCEerste Divisie3-4
2025-10-24Almere City FCJong AZEerste Divisie1-3
2023-04-07Almere City FCJong AZEerste Divisie2-1
2022-08-22Jong AZAlmere City FCEerste Divisie3-2
2022-07-02Jong AZAlmere City FCFriendlies Clubs1-3
2022-05-06Almere City FCJong AZEerste Divisie0-3
2021-08-09Jong AZAlmere City FCEerste Divisie2-1
2021-01-15Jong AZAlmere City FCEerste Divisie2-5
2020-11-06Almere City FCJong AZEerste Divisie2-0
2020-03-02Jong AZAlmere City FCEerste Divisie3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.1%, draw 23.1%, away 43.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.78 4.00 2.13
Bet365 3.00 4.00 2.10
BetVictor 2.88 4.00 2.05
Betano 2.72 4.15 2.15
Betfair 2.80 4.10 2.10
Dafabet 2.90 4.10 2.17
Marathonbet 2.76 4.00 2.11
Pinnacle 2.93 4.40 2.10
SBO 2.56 3.47 2.12
William Hill 2.80 3.75 2.15
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.03
X 4.00 —
2 2.12 ▼ -0.01

14 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Almere City FC Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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