Heracles
vs
Roda
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heracles
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Heracles is the favourite, not a value bet.
Heracles vs Roda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heracles vs Roda
| Probability | Heracles | Draw | Roda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.7% | 27.8% | 20.5% |
| Market | 60.2% | 21.7% | 18.1% |
| Final | 58.1% | 23.2% | 18.7% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +1.5% | +0.6% |
Why Heracles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.90.
Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (our 58.1% × 1.56 − 1).
Heracles vs Roda match preview
Heracles will host Roda in the Eerste Divisie on November 6, 2026. According to our model, Heracles has a 62% probability of winning, while Roda has a 16% chance. The expected goals for Heracles stand at 1.57, compared to Roda's 0.90. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Heracles, which has a 12% probability.
Recent form shows Heracles with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Roda has recorded four wins and one draw. In their last ten encounters, Heracles has secured five victories, with Roda winning two. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate confidence in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heracles and Roda expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Heracles and Roda attack and defence ratings
Heracles
Roda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heracles vs Roda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 58.1% | 1.72 | -2.1% | 1.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 58.1% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Roda | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | |
| 2-0 | 10.4% |
Heracles vs Roda stats
Heracles and Roda recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heracles and Roda season so far
Heracles record
- They have won 10 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Roda record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heracles vs Roda head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-14 | Heracles | Roda | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2022-12-11 | Roda | Heracles | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2022-10-18 | Roda | Heracles | KNVB Beker | 2-2 |
| 2018-03-02 | Roda | Heracles | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2017-09-23 | Heracles | Roda | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2017-02-11 | Heracles | Roda | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2016-08-07 | Roda | Heracles | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2016-02-28 | Heracles | Roda | Eredivisie | 0-5 |
| 2015-08-08 | Roda | Heracles | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2014-03-15 | Heracles | Roda | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heracles vs Roda odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.2%, draw 21.7%, away 18.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 4.25 | 5.15 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.52 | 4.25 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.55 | 4.43 | 5.54 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 4.08 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .