Heracles
vs
FC OSS
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heracles
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.29.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Heracles is the favourite, not a value bet.
Heracles vs FC OSS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heracles vs FC OSS
| Probability | Heracles | Draw | FC OSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.1% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| Market | 79.4% | 12.9% | 7.7% |
| Final | 74.3% | 15.0% | 10.7% |
| Edge | -5.1% | +2.1% | +3.0% |
Why Heracles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.29.
Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (our 74.3% × 1.20 − 1).
Heracles vs FC OSS match preview
Heracles enters this matchup against FC OSS with a strong probability of winning at 76%, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 14%, and FC OSS at 10%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Heracles, with a forecast of 2.57 compared to FC OSS's 1.29. Our model indicates a most likely scoreline of 2-1, which aligns with the high probability of over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 68%.
In terms of recent form, Heracles has recorded a mix of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Conversely, FC OSS has had varying success, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their recent outings. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heracles and FC OSS expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
Heracles and FC OSS attack and defence ratings
Heracles
FC OSS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heracles vs FC OSS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 74.3% | 1.35 | -5.1% | 1.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.3% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 74.3% |
| Draw | 15.0% | |
| FC OSS | 10.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% |
| No | 34.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 38.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 40.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Heracles vs FC OSS stats
Heracles and FC OSS recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heracles and FC OSS season so far
Heracles record
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC OSS record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Heracles vs FC OSS head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Heracles vs FC OSS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 79.4%, draw 12.9%, away 7.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.17 | 7.20 | 11.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.15 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.19 | 6.70 | 11.75 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.19 | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.16 | 7.20 | 12.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 8.14 | 11.05 |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 7.50 | 12.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .