Jong Ajax
vs
Vitesse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vitesse
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vitesse is the favourite, not a value bet.
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
| Probability | Jong Ajax | Draw | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.4% | 27.5% | 42.1% |
| Market | 31.1% | 23.3% | 45.5% |
| Final | 30.9% | 24.4% | 44.7% |
| Edge | -0.2% | +1.0% | -0.9% |
Why Vitesse
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (our 44.7% × 2.09 − 1).
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse match preview
Jong Ajax faces Vitesse in the Eerste Divisie, with kickoff scheduled for November 2, 2026. According to our model, Jong Ajax has a 34% chance of winning, while Vitesse is favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 58% likelihood, and there is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. Expected goals are calculated at 1.36 for Jong Ajax and 1.47 for Vitesse.
In terms of recent form, Jong Ajax has recorded a draw, win, loss, draw, loss, and loss in their last six matches, while Vitesse has achieved a win, loss, win, draw, loss, and win in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record over the last two encounters shows Jong Ajax with one win and Vitesse also with one win. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jong Ajax and Vitesse expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Jong Ajax and Vitesse attack and defence ratings
Jong Ajax
Vitesse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 44.7% | 2.24 | -0.9% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Ajax | 30.9% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Vitesse | 44.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% |
| No | 42.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win | 21.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 57.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse stats
Jong Ajax and Vitesse recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jong Ajax and Vitesse season so far
Jong Ajax record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitesse record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Vitesse | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 6-1 |
| 2025-12-01 | Jong Ajax | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.1%, draw 23.3%, away 45.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.00 | 3.98 | 2.02 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 4.00 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.95 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.09 |
| Marathonbet | 2.99 | 3.98 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.00 | 4.06 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .