KNVB Beker · 2026-10-28T19:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Round of 64

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse

0 – 2 Full time

22′			G. Blancquart
31′			E. Probst
44′			L. de Blok
45′			N. Bannis
45′			N. Bannis
45′			L. Gorlich
46′			X. ThenuC. Olde Keizer
47′			A. Buttner
51′			A. Sellouf
60′			A. VerstraetenR. Vullers
60′			A. RaisT. Janssen
67′			N. Markelo
72′			A. ButtnerP. Dahbo
72′			L. G. SchmidtM. Tsigkas
72′			F. de CarvalhoS. Bonnah
72′			L. de BlokD. Hendrix
72′			T. JoostenT. Schenkhuizen
79′			N. Ait Mouhou
83′			N. BannisK. te Veluwe
84′			M. Schikora
90′			E. ProbstM. Marschalk
90′			M. Odriss
90′			C. Olde Keizer

Seacon - De Koel, VenloReferee: I. Oostrom

VVV Venlo

46%

Draw

24%

Vitesse

29%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

11	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
51	Possession %	49
8	Corners	4
16	Fouls	14
0	Offsides	3
2	Saves	4
280	Accurate passes	259

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse overview

Garuda Lions analysis: VVV Venlo vs Vitesse

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	VVV Venlo	Draw	Vitesse
Model	52.9%	23.9%	23.3%
Market	44.0%	24.5%	31.5%
Final	46.2%	24.3%	29.4%
Edge	+2.2%	-0.2%	-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why VVV Venlo

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.26.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices VVV Venlo below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

84%

3+ goals

62%

No goals

VVV Venlo and Vitesse expected goals

VVV Venlo

1.96

Vitesse

1.26

Total expected goals: 3.22

VVV Venlo and Vitesse attack and defence ratings

VVV Venlo

Attack

1.33 +33%

Defence

0.90 -10%

Vitesse

Attack

0.68 -32%

Defence

0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse: result vs prediction

VVV Venlo 0 – 2 Vitesse

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

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Roda vs De Graafschap — team news & stats · 2026-10-27
FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam · 2026-10-27
Helmond Sport v Willem II — match page · 2026-10-27
Telstar vs Almere City FC · 2026-10-27
Rijnsburgse Boys v Den Bosch — match page · 2026-10-27
Barendrecht v Waalwijk — match page · 2026-10-27
Kloetinge vs Cambuur · 2026-10-27

Before and after this match

VVV Venlo, previous: Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo prediction
VVV Venlo, next: MVV v VVV Venlo analysis
Vitesse, previous: Vitesse vs Emmen prediction
Vitesse, next: Jong Ajax – Vitesse, 2026-11-02

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	VVV Venlo	46.2%	2.16	+2.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62.4%	1.60	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	62.5%	1.60	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	75.7%	1.32	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	47.1%	2.12	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	VVV Venlo	46.2%
	Draw	24.3%
	Vitesse	29.4%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62.4%
	Under 2.5	37.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	62.5%
	No	37.5%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	70.6%
	12 (either side)	75.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	53.8%
Handicap -1	VVV Venlo win	31.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.4%
	Loss	47.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.8%
	2-1	9.7%
	2-0	7.7%

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse stats

VVV Venlo and Vitesse recent form

newest first

VVV Venlo	WDWWLW
Vitesse	LWLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2VVV Venlo wins 2Draws 6Vitesse wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-02-14	Vitesse	VVV Venlo	Eerste Divisie	2-2
2025-10-31	VVV Venlo	Vitesse	Eerste Divisie	1-2
2025-01-12	Vitesse	VVV Venlo	Eerste Divisie	1-4
2024-08-16	VVV Venlo	Vitesse	Eerste Divisie	0-1
2022-07-22	Vitesse	VVV Venlo	Friendlies Clubs	2-2
2021-03-02	Vitesse	VVV Venlo	KNVB Beker	2-0
2021-02-27	Vitesse	VVV Venlo	Eredivisie	4-1
2021-01-27	VVV Venlo	Vitesse	Eredivisie	4-1
2019-12-22	Vitesse	VVV Venlo	Eredivisie	3-0
2019-10-19	VVV Venlo	Vitesse	Eredivisie	0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.0%, draw 24.5%, away 31.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.07	3.82	2.99
Bet365	2.15	3.80	3.00
BetVictor	2.10	3.70	2.90
Betano	2.15	3.75	2.95
Betfair	2.00	3.75	2.90
Dafabet	2.17	3.85	3.05
Marathonbet	2.05	3.82	2.97
Pinnacle	2.04	3.86	2.92
SBO	2.11	3.33	2.66
William Hill	2.10	3.60	2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▼ -0.05

X 3.77 ▲ +0.02

2 2.94 ▲ +0.19

3 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-27T16:10:02Z.