Dordrecht
vs
VVV Venlo
Garuda Lions Prediction: VVV Venlo
1 – 3 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo
| Probability | Dordrecht | Draw | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.3% | 15.7% | 70.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 14.3% | 15.7% | 70.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why VVV Venlo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.07 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo match preview
Dordrecht faces VVV Venlo in the Eerste Divisie with a significant disparity in predicted outcomes. According to our model, Dordrecht has a 14% chance of winning, while VVV Venlo is favored at 70%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-3 in favor of VVV Venlo, with an expected goals tally of 1.42 for Dordrecht and 3.07 for VVV Venlo.
Recent form shows Dordrecht struggling with three losses in their last five matches, while VVV Venlo has been more successful, recording three wins in their last five. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is high at 83%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 73%, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dordrecht and VVV Venlo expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.49
Dordrecht and VVV Venlo attack and defence ratings
Dordrecht
VVV Venlo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VVV Venlo | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dordrecht | 14.3% |
| Draw | 15.7% | |
| VVV Venlo | 70.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% |
| No | 27.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win | 51.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 30.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.7% |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | |
| 1-4 | 5.9% |
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo stats
Dordrecht and VVV Venlo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dordrecht and VVV Venlo season so far
Dordrecht record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
VVV Venlo record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | VVV Venlo | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Dordrecht | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.