Garuda Lions
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Eerste Divisie · Full time ·Matchday 11

VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ

4 – 4 Full time

13′Jerolldino Bergraaf
22′rio robbemond
31′Ismail Oulad M'Hand
33′L. Schmidt
45′rio robbemondJasper Hartog
49′L. Schmidt
55′Jasper Hartog
60′Thomas JanssenAmir rais
60′Ismail Oulad M'HandLuis Gorlich
60′Philip HeiseLars de Blok
64′Hessel de WitKevin toppenberg
64′Jerolldino BergraafMathijs Menu
66′Andreas Verstraeten
69′L. SchmidtMattheos Tsigkas
70′Eanna Clancy
74′Raf Vullers
74′Jasper Hartog
78′Wassim bouzianeSaviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe
83′Julian SijbrandsBogdan Budko
90′Lars de Blok
90′Jesper Zwart
90′Jasper Hartog
90′Eanna Clancy
90′Kevin toppenberg

Seacon Stadion De Koel, Venlo

VVV Venlo 54%
Draw 21%
Jong AZ 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 21
6 Shots on target 6
48 Possession % 52
7 Corners 5
13 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1
2 Saves 2
320 Accurate passes 356

VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ overview

Garuda Lions analysis: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVVV VenloDrawJong AZ
Model62.8%18.8%18.3%
Market51.3%21.9%26.8%
Final54.2%21.1%24.7%
Edge+2.9%-0.8%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why VVV Venlo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.41.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices VVV Venlo below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

VVV Venlo ↓ / Jong AZ → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 8% 5% 4+ 7% 9% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 77%
No goals 2%

VVV Venlo and Jong AZ expected goals

VVV Venlo 2.62
Jong AZ 1.41

Total expected goals: 4.04

VVV Venlo and Jong AZ attack and defence ratings

VVV Venlo

Attack 1.38 +38%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Jong AZ

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ: result vs prediction

VVV Venlo 4 – 4 Jong AZ

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 VVV Venlo 54.2% 1.84 +2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.7% 1.30 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.8% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.9% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 VVV Venlo win 43.0% 2.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2VVV Venlo54.2%
Draw21.1%
Jong AZ24.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.7%
Under 2.523.3%
Both teams to scoreYes70.8%
No29.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.3%
12 (either side)78.9%
X2 (draw or away)45.8%
Handicap -1VVV Venlo win43.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss37.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.6%
3-17.5%
1-17.2%

VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ stats

VVV Venlo and Jong AZ recent form

newest first
VVV Venlo WWLWWL
Jong AZ LWDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

VVV Venlo and Jong AZ going into this match

league record before kick-off

VVV Venlo record

  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jong AZ record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.

VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2VVV Venlo wins 1Draws 7Jong AZ wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-16VVV VenloJong AZEerste Divisie1-3
2025-11-07Jong AZVVV VenloEerste Divisie0-2
2025-02-03Jong AZVVV VenloEerste Divisie3-0
2024-11-08VVV VenloJong AZEerste Divisie0-1
2024-07-10VVV VenloJong AZFriendlies Clubs2-1
2024-04-22Jong AZVVV VenloEerste Divisie2-1
2023-11-03VVV VenloJong AZEerste Divisie2-2
2023-07-12VVV VenloJong AZFriendlies Clubs1-2
2023-02-03Jong AZVVV VenloEerste Divisie4-3
2022-10-28VVV VenloJong AZEerste Divisie1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.4%, draw 22.2%, away 27.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.82 4.25 3.40
Bet365 1.80 4.20 3.80
BetVictor 1.80 4.20 3.50
Betano 2.12 3.90 2.90
Betfair 2.05 4.10 2.88
Dafabet 2.21 4.00 2.85
Marathonbet 1.80 4.25 3.40
Pinnacle 1.80 4.58 3.57
SBO 2.15 3.54 2.61
William Hill 1.83 4.00 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.80 ▼ -0.35
X 4.22 ▲ +0.24
2 3.45 ▲ +0.65

14 snapshots recorded, from .