VVV Venlo
vs
Jong AZ
Garuda Lions Prediction: VVV Venlo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ overview
Garuda Lions analysis: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ
| Probability | VVV Venlo | Draw | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.9% | 19.0% | 24.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.9% | 19.0% | 24.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why VVV Venlo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.04
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ attack and defence ratings
VVV Venlo
Jong AZ
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VVV Venlo | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.0% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VVV Venlo | 56.9% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| Jong AZ | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.9% |
| No | 22.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win | 43.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 37.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.4% |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ stats
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ season so far
VVV Venlo record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong AZ record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | VVV Venlo | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Jong AZ | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.