Jong Ajax
vs
De Graafschap
Garuda Lions Prediction: De Graafschap
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap
| Probability | Jong Ajax | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.5% | 24.4% | 44.1% |
| Market | 35.2% | 22.9% | 41.9% |
| Final | 34.3% | 23.3% | 42.4% |
| Edge | -3.8% | +1.5% | +2.3% |
Why De Graafschap
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices De Graafschap below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap match preview
Jong Ajax faces De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie, with the probabilities indicating a competitive matchup. Jong Ajax has a 34% chance of winning, while De Graafschap is favored at 42%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Expected goals suggest Jong Ajax will score 1.54, while De Graafschap is projected to net 1.84.
Recent form shows Jong Ajax with a record of L-D-L-L-W-D, while De Graafschap has W-D-W-L-W-L. Both teams have a strong likelihood of scoring, with our model indicating a 67% chance for both teams to find the net. Additionally, there is a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, suggesting an engaging encounter ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap attack and defence ratings
Jong Ajax
De Graafschap
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 42.4% | 2.36 | +2.3% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Ajax | 34.3% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| De Graafschap | 42.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% |
| No | 33.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | De Graafschap win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap stats
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap recent form
| Jong Ajax |
LDLLWD |
| De Graafschap |
WDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap season so far
Jong Ajax record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
De Graafschap record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | De Graafschap | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Jong Ajax | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.4%, draw 23.0%, away 41.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.63 | 4.05 | 2.21 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.90 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 4.05 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 4.10 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 4.10 | 2.31 |
| Marathonbet | 2.61 | 4.05 | 2.19 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 4.31 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .