De Graafschap
vs
Jong Utrecht
2 – 1 Full time
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
| Probability | De Graafschap | Draw | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.3% | 22.5% | 40.1% |
| Market | 57.5% | 21.4% | 21.1% |
| Final | 52.5% | 21.7% | 25.9% |
| Edge | -20.2% | +1.2% | +19.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.89
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht attack and defence ratings
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht: result vs prediction
De Graafschap 2 – 1 Jong Utrecht
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 52.5% | 1.91 | -20.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 52.5% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Jong Utrecht | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% |
| No | 25.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | De Graafschap win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 62.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht stats
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht recent form
| De Graafschap |
DWLWLL |
| Jong Utrecht |
LWWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht going into this match
De Graafschap record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong Utrecht record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | De Graafschap | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Jong Utrecht | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2025-01-20 | Jong Utrecht | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-23 | De Graafschap | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-03 | De Graafschap | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-24 | Jong Utrecht | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2023-01-30 | Jong Utrecht | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-14 | De Graafschap | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2021-12-20 | Jong Utrecht | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 0-2 |
| 2021-09-24 | De Graafschap | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.5%, draw 21.4%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.30 | 4.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.33 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.35 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.54 | 4.56 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 4.12 | 3.98 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .