NAC Breda
vs
MVV
1 – 0 Full time
NAC Breda vs MVV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NAC Breda vs MVV
| Probability | NAC Breda | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 18.3% | 16.0% |
| Market | 72.1% | 16.9% | 10.9% |
| Final | 70.5% | 17.3% | 12.2% |
| Edge | -6.4% | +1.4% | +5.0% |
Why NAC Breda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.29.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NAC Breda and MVV expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.94
NAC Breda and MVV attack and defence ratings
NAC Breda
MVV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
NAC Breda vs MVV: result vs prediction
NAC Breda 1 – 0 MVV
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
NAC Breda vs MVV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 70.5% | 1.42 | -6.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 70.5% |
| Draw | 17.3% | |
| MVV | 12.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.0% |
| No | 32.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win | 45.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-1 | 7.3% |
NAC Breda vs MVV stats
NAC Breda and MVV recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NAC Breda and MVV going into this match
NAC Breda record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MVV record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NAC Breda vs MVV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | NAC Breda | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-19 | MVV | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
| 2023-05-27 | MVV | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | 1-4 |
| 2023-05-23 | NAC Breda | MVV | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-10 | NAC Breda | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 4-1 |
| 2022-08-15 | MVV | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2022-03-04 | MVV | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2021-10-22 | NAC Breda | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 3-0 |
| 2021-05-07 | NAC Breda | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2020-11-06 | MVV | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NAC Breda vs MVV odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.1%, draw 16.9%, away 10.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 5.70 | 8.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.25 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 5.40 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.31 | 6.00 | 8.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.26 | 5.70 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 6.07 | 8.51 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 5.13 | 6.86 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .