Eerste Divisie · 2026-10-03T14:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 9

Vitesse vs NAC Breda

2 – 2 Full time

14′			Naoufal Bannis
24′			Charles-Andreas Brym
32′			Kamal Sowah
45′			Nathangelo MarkeloSolomon Bonnah
45′			Jeredy HiltermanPontus Dahbo
45′			Mathijs MarschalkYoussef Ouallil
49′			Charles-Andreas Brym
51′			M. Steffen
67′			Kamal SowahFredrik Jensen
71′			Filipe de Carvalho FerreiraJoâo Pinto
72′			Charles-Andreas BrymGabriel Osei Misehouy
79′			Aymen·Sellouf
80′			Youssef Ouallil
81′			Moussa SoumanoMohamed Bouchouari
81′			Jan Van den BerghMylan Brouwers
83′			Xiamaro thenuAlexander Büttner
87′			Naoufal Bannis
90′			Alexander Büttner
90′			M. Steffenomar achouitar

GelreDome, Arnhem

Vitesse

37%

Draw

23%

NAC Breda

40%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

9	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	3
41	Possession %	59
8	Corners	2
16	Fouls	11
4	Offsides	0
1	Saves	2
256	Accurate passes	420

Vitesse vs NAC Breda overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vitesse vs NAC Breda

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Vitesse	Draw	NAC Breda
Model	54.4%	22.3%	23.4%
Market	30.9%	23.8%	45.3%
Final	36.8%	23.4%	39.8%
Edge	+23.4%	-1.5%	-21.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

96%

2+ goals

88%

3+ goals

69%

No goals

Vitesse and NAC Breda expected goals

Vitesse

2.17

NAC Breda

1.39

Total expected goals: 3.56

Vitesse and NAC Breda attack and defence ratings

Vitesse

Attack

1.05 +5%

Defence

0.82 -18%

NAC Breda

Attack

1.15 +15%

Defence

1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vitesse vs NAC Breda: result vs prediction

Vitesse 2 – 2 NAC Breda

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ — team news & stats · 2026-09-14
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax · 2026-09-14
Helmond Sport v Heracles — match page · 2026-10-02
FC OSS vs MVV · 2026-10-03
Waalwijk v Emmen — match page · 2026-10-03
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam — team news & stats · 2026-10-03
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht · 2026-10-03
FC Eindhoven v De Graafschap — match page · 2026-10-03

Before and after this match

Vitesse, previous: Heracles vs Vitesse prediction
Vitesse, next: FC Volendam vs Vitesse prediction
NAC Breda, previous: NAC Breda – FC Eindhoven, 2026-09-26
NAC Breda, next: NAC Breda vs MVV prediction

Vitesse vs NAC Breda markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	NAC Breda	39.8%	2.51	-21.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68.9%	1.45	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	67.3%	1.49	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	76.6%	1.31	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	76.6%	1.30	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Vitesse	36.8%
	Draw	23.4%
	NAC Breda	39.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68.9%
	Under 2.5	31.1%
Both teams to score	Yes	67.3%
	No	32.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	60.2%
	12 (either side)	76.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	63.2%
Handicap -1	NAC Breda win	10.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	12.9%
	Loss	76.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	9.5%
	2-1	9.3%
	3-1	6.7%

Vitesse vs NAC Breda stats

Vitesse and NAC Breda recent form

newest first

Vitesse	LWLWWL
NAC Breda	WWLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vitesse and NAC Breda going into this match

league record before kick-off

Vitesse record

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NAC Breda record

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vitesse vs NAC Breda head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Vitesse wins 1Draws 2NAC Breda wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2019-03-02	Vitesse	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	4-1
2018-12-09	NAC Breda	Vitesse	Eredivisie	2-1
2018-04-07	NAC Breda	Vitesse	Eredivisie	1-0
2017-08-12	Vitesse	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	4-1
2015-02-07	NAC Breda	Vitesse	Eredivisie	0-1
2014-10-25	Vitesse	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	2-2
2014-03-08	NAC Breda	Vitesse	Eredivisie	1-2
2013-12-15	Vitesse	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	3-2
2013-04-06	Vitesse	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	3-0
2012-10-20	NAC Breda	Vitesse	Eredivisie	0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vitesse vs NAC Breda odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.9%, draw 23.8%, away 45.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.98	3.94	2.04
Bet365	3.20	3.75	2.05
BetVictor	3.00	3.80	2.05
Betano	3.05	3.75	2.10
Betfair	3.00	4.00	2.00
Marathonbet	2.96	3.94	2.02
Pinnacle	3.08	4.27	2.03
SBO	2.77	3.43	2.09
William Hill	2.88	3.90	2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.00 ▲ +0.36

X 3.90 —

2 2.05 ▼ -0.23

12 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-27T16:10:01Z.