Eerste Divisie · 2026-10-03T18:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 9

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam

1 – 0 Full time

22′			Luca Blondeau
37′			Enzo Cornelisse
59′			Jamie JacobsJochem Ritmeester Van De Kamp
59′			Daan HuismanPrecious ugwu
70′			Nick DoodemanFrederik Ihler
72′			Mawouna Amevor
74′			Ferdy DruijfBas Huisman
74′			Milan de HaanJob Kalisvaart
74′			Teun BijleveldDamian van Bruggen
82′			Y. Jaber el MaftahiKayden Wolff
88′			James LawrenceTwan·Van Der Zeeuw

Yanmar Stadion, Almere

Almere City FC

52%

Draw

23%

FC Volendam

26%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

20	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	1
39	Possession %	61
6	Corners	4
6	Fouls	8
3	Offsides	1
1	Saves	6
261	Accurate passes	440

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Almere City FC vs FC Volendam

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Almere City FC	Draw	FC Volendam
Model	59.2%	20.5%	20.2%
Market	48.9%	23.7%	27.3%
Final	51.5%	22.9%	25.6%
Edge	+10.3%	-3.2%	-7.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Almere City FC

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.37.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
The market prices Almere City FC below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

97%

2+ goals

90%

3+ goals

72%

No goals

Almere City FC and FC Volendam expected goals

Almere City FC

2.39

FC Volendam

1.37

Total expected goals: 3.76

Almere City FC and FC Volendam attack and defence ratings

Almere City FC

Attack

1.18 +18%

Defence

0.76 -24%

FC Volendam

Attack

1.22 +22%

Defence

1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam: result vs prediction

Almere City FC 1 – 0 FC Volendam

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ — team news & stats · 2026-09-14
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax · 2026-09-14
Helmond Sport v Heracles — match page · 2026-10-02
Vitesse vs NAC Breda — team news & stats · 2026-10-03
FC OSS vs MVV · 2026-10-03
Waalwijk v Emmen — match page · 2026-10-03
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht · 2026-10-03
FC Eindhoven v De Graafschap — match page · 2026-10-03

Before and after this match

Almere City FC, previous: Dordrecht vs Almere City FC: odds and pick
Almere City FC, next: Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven analysis
FC Volendam, previous: FC Volendam – VVV Venlo, 2026-09-26
FC Volendam, next: FC Volendam vs Vitesse prediction

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Almere City FC	51.5%	1.94	+10.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72.4%	1.38	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	68.5%	1.46	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	77.1%	1.30	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	40.7%	2.46	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Almere City FC	51.5%
	Draw	22.9%
	FC Volendam	25.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72.4%
	Under 2.5	27.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	68.5%
	No	31.5%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	74.4%
	12 (either side)	77.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	48.5%
Handicap -1	Almere City FC win	38.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.5%
	Loss	40.7%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	9.1%
	1-1	8.4%
	3-1	7.3%

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam stats

Almere City FC and FC Volendam recent form

newest first

Almere City FC	LWWLWW
FC Volendam	WLWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Almere City FC and FC Volendam going into this match

league record before kick-off

Almere City FC record

They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Volendam record

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Almere City FC wins 2Draws 4FC Volendam wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-15	Almere City FC	FC Volendam	Friendlies Clubs	2-1
2024-03-31	Almere City FC	FC Volendam	Eredivisie	1-1
2024-01-14	FC Volendam	Almere City FC	Eredivisie	0-1
2021-12-17	Almere City FC	FC Volendam	Eerste Divisie	2-3
2021-10-01	FC Volendam	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	3-2
2021-03-03	Almere City FC	FC Volendam	Eerste Divisie	1-2
2020-11-27	FC Volendam	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	2-2
2019-09-08	Almere City FC	FC Volendam	Eerste Divisie	1-0
2019-01-13	Almere City FC	FC Volendam	Eerste Divisie	0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.9%, draw 23.7%, away 27.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.87	3.92	3.45
Bet365	1.90	4.00	3.50
BetVictor	1.90	4.00	3.25
Betano	1.91	3.90	3.45
Betfair	1.90	4.20	3.30
Marathonbet	1.85	3.92	3.44
Pinnacle	1.93	4.14	3.40
SBO	1.93	3.57	3.02
William Hill	1.91	3.80	3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.90 ▼ -0.06

X 3.92 ▲ +0.08

2 3.40 ▲ +0.19

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-27T16:10:01Z.