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Eerste Divisie · Full time ·Matchday 9

Helmond Sport vs Heracles

2 – 2 Full time

6′Maurice Wrusch
8′David Vicente
8′Fabian De Keijzer
13′Tarik Essakkati
13′Jeff Reine-Adélaïde
26′Pol Llonch
29′Tarik Essakkati
36′Pol Llonchalen dizdarevic
44′Manny Rodriguez Baldera
45′Chafik AbbasMimeirhel Benita
54′Sem Dekkers
58′Joep van der SluijsMauro Lenaerts
66′Tristan Van GilstStijn Bultman
66′Max HauswirthDavid Tomic
71′Tarik Essakkati
79′Thomas PollFlor Van Den Eynden
79′Livio CiceroKiton Ekoli
80′Mauro Lenaerts
82′Xander van der Velde
82′Stijn Bultman
87′Mimeirhel Benita
88′Mimeirhel BenitaMario Engels

Lavans Stadion, Helmond

Helmond Sport 18%
Draw 21%
Heracles 60%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 30
6 Shots on target 14
33 Possession % 67
2 Corners 12
18 Fouls 5
12 Saves 4
317 Accurate passes 297

Helmond Sport vs Heracles overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Helmond Sport vs Heracles

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHelmond SportDrawHeracles
Model29.1%24.8%46.1%
Market14.9%20.3%64.8%
Final18.5%21.4%60.1%
Edge+14.2%+4.5%-18.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Heracles

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.42.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Helmond Sport ↓ / Heracles → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Helmond Sport and Heracles expected goals

Helmond Sport 1.42
Heracles 1.83

Total expected goals: 3.25

Helmond Sport and Heracles attack and defence ratings

Helmond Sport

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Heracles

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Helmond Sport vs Heracles: result vs prediction

Helmond Sport 2 – 2 Heracles

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

Helmond Sport vs Heracles markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Heracles 60.1% 1.66 -18.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.0% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.7% 1.55 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.5% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.9% 1.86 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Helmond Sport18.5%
Draw21.4%
Heracles60.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%
Both teams to scoreYes64.7%
No35.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)39.9%
12 (either side)78.6%
X2 (draw or away)81.5%
Handicap -1Heracles win25.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss53.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
1-29.2%
2-17.2%

Helmond Sport vs Heracles stats

Helmond Sport and Heracles recent form

newest first
Helmond Sport LLWWLD
Heracles WLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Helmond Sport and Heracles going into this match

league record before kick-off

Helmond Sport record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Heracles record

  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Helmond Sport vs Heracles head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

0Helmond Sport wins 0Draws 3Heracles wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-08-05HeraclesHelmond SportFriendlies Clubs2-0
2023-04-21Helmond SportHeraclesEerste Divisie0-1
2022-09-23HeraclesHelmond SportEerste Divisie2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Helmond Sport vs Heracles odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 14.9%, draw 20.3%, away 64.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.97 4.60 1.44
Bet365 6.25 4.50 1.45
BetVictor 8.00 5.25 1.30
Betano 6.30 4.50 1.45
Betfair 6.50 5.00 1.40
Marathonbet 5.90 4.60 1.43
Pinnacle 5.67 4.71 1.50
SBO 6.28 4.84 1.32
William Hill 5.00 4.60 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.25 ▲ +0.15
X 4.60 ▼ -0.15
2 1.44 ▲ +0.03

11 snapshots recorded, from .