Garuda Lions
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Eerste Divisie · Full time ·Matchday 8

MVV vs Helmond Sport

2 – 0 Full time

49′Olivier·Dumont
50′Lennerd DaneelsOnesime Zimuangana
56′Olivier·Dumont
56′Thomas Poll
57′Sem Dekkers
61′Tarik EssakkatiMauro Lenaerts
67′Brian Koglin
71′Thomas PollBrian van den Boogaard
71′Pol LlonchKiton Ekoli
78′Elias Sierra
85′Xander van der Veldealen dizdarevic
86′Noa El HamdaouiNaim Matoug

De Geusselt, Maastricht

MVV 39%
Draw 26%
Helmond Sport 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 11
2 Shots on target 5
54 Possession % 46
6 Corners 2
9 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2
4 Saves 0
376 Accurate passes 302

MVV vs Helmond Sport overview

Garuda Lions analysis: MVV vs Helmond Sport

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMVVDrawHelmond Sport
Model24.7%25.7%49.6%
Market43.7%26.5%29.9%
Final38.9%26.3%34.8%
Edge-19.0%-0.7%+19.8%

Confidence: Low

Why MVV

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

MVV ↓ / Helmond Sport → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 8% 1 12% 10% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

MVV and Helmond Sport expected goals

MVV 1.19
Helmond Sport 1.75

Total expected goals: 2.94

MVV and Helmond Sport attack and defence ratings

MVV

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Helmond Sport

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

MVV vs Helmond Sport: result vs prediction

MVV 2 – 0 Helmond Sport

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

MVV vs Helmond Sport markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 MVV 38.9% 2.57 -19.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.3% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.5% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.7% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 75.3% 1.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2MVV38.9%
Draw26.3%
Helmond Sport34.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%
Both teams to scoreYes58.5%
No41.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.2%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)61.1%
Handicap -1MVV win10.3%
Push (exactly one goal)14.4%
Loss75.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
1-29.6%
0-18.2%

MVV vs Helmond Sport stats

MVV and Helmond Sport recent form

newest first
MVV LLDWWW
Helmond Sport LWWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

MVV and Helmond Sport going into this match

league record before kick-off

MVV record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Helmond Sport record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MVV vs Helmond Sport head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7MVV wins 1Draws 2Helmond Sport wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-10MVVHelmond SportEerste Divisie0-0
2025-12-05Helmond SportMVVEerste Divisie2-4
2025-03-07Helmond SportMVVEerste Divisie4-0
2024-10-27MVVHelmond SportEerste Divisie1-2
2024-04-05MVVHelmond SportEerste Divisie3-0
2023-12-08Helmond SportMVVEerste Divisie1-2
2023-04-07Helmond SportMVVEerste Divisie1-2
2022-11-04MVVHelmond SportEerste Divisie4-0
2022-04-01Helmond SportMVVEerste Divisie1-2
2021-08-20MVVHelmond SportEerste Divisie3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

MVV vs Helmond Sport odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 26.5%, away 29.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.12 3.50 3.10
Bet365 2.20 3.50 3.10
BetVictor 2.10 3.60 3.00
Betano 2.15 3.40 3.20
Betfair 2.00 3.80 3.25
Marathonbet 2.10 3.50 3.08
Pinnacle 2.19 3.62 3.14
SBO 2.11 3.26 2.86
William Hill 2.15 3.30 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.12 ▲ +0.22
X 3.50 ▼ -0.25
2 3.10 ▼ -0.44

13 snapshots recorded, from .