Waalwijk
vs
MVV
6 – 1 Full time
| 13′ | Jordy de Wijs | ||
| 29′ | F. Al Mazyani | ||
| 40′ | Juan Familia-Castillo | ||
| 42′ | Ryan Fage | ||
| 45′ | Naim MatougOnesime Zimuangana | ||
| 45′ | Robert KlaasenMika Luijendijk | ||
| 49′ | Liam Van Gelderen | ||
| 63′ | Keyan Anderson Pereira VarelaVirgil Misidjan | ||
| 63′ | Finn StokkersJesse van de Haar | ||
| 73′ | Jesse van de Haar | ||
| 74′ | Jordy de WijsSven van der Plas | ||
| 75′ | Ryan FageYoram van der Veen | ||
| 77′ | Noa El HamdaouiToni Vinogradac | ||
| 81′ | Jochem NapTim van de Loo | ||
| 89′ | Olivier·Dumont | ||
| 90′ | Hugo Wentges | ||
| 90′ | Jesse van de Haar |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 1 |
| 284 | Accurate passes | 417 |
Waalwijk vs MVV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Waalwijk vs MVV
| Probability | Waalwijk | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.6% | 22.8% | 15.6% |
| Market | 57.3% | 23.2% | 19.5% |
| Final | 58.4% | 23.1% | 18.5% |
| Edge | +4.3% | -0.4% | -3.9% |
Why Waalwijk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.93.
- The market prices Waalwijk below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Waalwijk and MVV expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Waalwijk and MVV attack and defence ratings
Waalwijk
MVV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Waalwijk vs MVV: result vs prediction
Waalwijk 6 – 1 MVV
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Waalwijk vs MVV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 58.4% | 1.71 | +4.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win | 38.4% | 2.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 58.4% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| MVV | 18.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% |
| No | 46.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win | 38.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 38.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Waalwijk vs MVV stats
Waalwijk and MVV recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Waalwijk and MVV going into this match
Waalwijk record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
MVV record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Waalwijk vs MVV head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | MVV | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-25 | Waalwijk | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2019-03-15 | MVV | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
| 2018-12-07 | Waalwijk | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2018-03-16 | Waalwijk | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2017-11-03 | MVV | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2017-05-05 | MVV | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2016-12-02 | Waalwijk | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Waalwijk vs MVV odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.3%, draw 23.2%, away 19.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 4.10 | 4.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.95 | 4.75 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 4.28 | 4.81 |
| SBO | 1.56 | 3.80 | 4.48 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .