Eerste Divisie · 2026-09-11T18:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 6

MVV vs Almere City FC

0 – 4 Full time

13′			Ferdy Druijf
42′			Milan·HoflandLars Schenk
45′			Enzo CornelisseMilan de Haan
62′			H. el DahriJamie Jacobs
63′			Byron BurgeringEmanuel Poku
66′			Ferdy Druijf
68′			Toni VinogradacNoa El Hamdaoui
69′			Martin Jean WasinskiDamian van Bruggen
74′			Marley Dors
78′			Lars Schenk
79′			Robert KlaasenNaim Matoug
79′			Delano AsanteOnesime Zimuangana
79′			Teun BijleveldOlivier de Nijs
85′			Olivier de Nijs
89′			Emanuel Poku

De Geusselt, Maastricht

MVV

32%

Draw

26%

Almere City FC

43%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	10
65	Possession %	35
5	Corners	4
5	Fouls	6
1	Offsides	1
6	Saves	2
510	Accurate passes	242

MVV vs Almere City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: MVV vs Almere City FC

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	MVV	Draw	Almere City FC
Model	28.1%	28.5%	43.3%
Market	32.9%	24.9%	42.3%
Final	31.7%	25.8%	42.5%
Edge	-4.7%	+3.6%	+1.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Almere City FC

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.13.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

74%

3+ goals

48%

No goals

MVV and Almere City FC expected goals

MVV

1.13

Almere City FC

1.46

Total expected goals: 2.59

MVV and Almere City FC attack and defence ratings

MVV

Attack

0.81 -19%

Defence

0.86 -14%

Almere City FC

Attack

1.13 +13%

Defence

0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

MVV vs Almere City FC: result vs prediction

MVV 0 – 4 Almere City FC

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

NAC Breda v Jong Utrecht — match page · 2026-09-11
VVV Venlo vs FC OSS — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Heracles vs Jong AZ · 2026-09-11
Emmen v De Graafschap — match page · 2026-09-11
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht · 2026-09-11
Helmond Sport v Jong PSV U21 — match page · 2026-09-11
Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Roda vs Vitesse · 2026-09-12

Before and after this match

MVV, previous: MVV v Roda analysis
MVV, next: Waalwijk – MVV, 2026-09-18
Almere City FC, previous: Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax: odds and pick
Almere City FC, next: Almere City FC vs Heracles: odds and pick

MVV vs Almere City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Almere City FC	42.5%	2.35	+1.1%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	52.2%	1.92	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	53.2%	1.88	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.2%	1.35	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	56.7%	1.76	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	MVV	31.7%
	Draw	25.8%
	Almere City FC	42.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	47.8%
	Under 2.5	52.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	53.2%
	No	46.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	57.5%
	12 (either side)	74.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	68.3%
Handicap -1	Almere City FC win	21.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.6%
	Loss	56.7%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.6%
	0-1	9.7%
	1-2	9.0%

MVV vs Almere City FC stats

MVV and Almere City FC recent form

newest first

MVV	DWWWWL
Almere City FC	LWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

MVV and Almere City FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

MVV record

They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Almere City FC record

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

MVV vs Almere City FC head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3MVV wins 2Draws 4Almere City FC wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-02-02	MVV	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	1-1
2025-11-07	Almere City FC	MVV	Eerste Divisie	4-0
2023-05-19	Almere City FC	MVV	Eerste Divisie	1-0
2022-11-19	MVV	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	1-0
2022-03-27	MVV	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	0-3
2021-11-19	Almere City FC	MVV	Eerste Divisie	0-2
2021-07-14	Almere City FC	MVV	Friendlies Clubs	3-0
2021-03-26	MVV	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie	2-0
2020-08-30	Almere City FC	MVV	Eerste Divisie	0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

MVV vs Almere City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.6%, draw 24.7%, away 43.7%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	3.00	3.90	2.10
1xBet	2.89	3.72	2.18
888Sport	3.00	3.60	2.05
Bet365	2.80	3.75	2.25
BetVictor	2.75	3.80	2.20
Betano	3.00	3.80	2.10
Betfair	3.00	4.00	2.00
Dafabet	3.05	3.90	2.14
Marathonbet	2.86	3.70	2.18
Pinnacle	2.86	3.87	2.26
SBO	2.71	3.48	2.03
Superbet	3.00	3.80	2.12
Unibet	3.05	3.70	1.97
William Hill	2.80	3.60	2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.83 ▼ -0.34

X 3.74 ▼ -0.14

2 2.20 ▲ +0.21

10 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-07T08:10:02Z.