Eerste Divisie
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Emmen
vs
De Graafschap
1 – 2 Full time
| 7′ | Julian kania | ||
| 18′ | Jason Meerstadtgijs bolk | ||
| 29′ | Jack Cooper Love | ||
| 57′ | Alessandro HojabrpourTorben Rhein | ||
| 57′ | Sybrand VeldhuisMustafa Abdullatif | ||
| 61′ | Bjorn van ZijlJorn Triep | ||
| 61′ | Julian kaniaKyano Kwint | ||
| 63′ | Donny Warmerdam | ||
| 70′ | Freddy QuispelStan van Manen | ||
| 75′ | Rowan Besselink | ||
| 79′ | Casper StaringLuca Denk | ||
| 79′ | Y. DedelhommeSafyan Toure | ||
| 82′ | Nolan MartensJannes Luca·Wieckhoff | ||
| 82′ | Toivo MeroNart Ahmeti-Grainca | ||
| 88′ | Thomas Kok | ||
| 90′ | Joshua Mukeh | ||
| 90′ | Luca Everink | ||
| 90′ | Donny Warmerdam | ||
| 90′ | Luca Everink | ||
| 90′ | Michael Breij | ||
| 90′ | Fedde De Jong |
Emmen
58%
Draw
20%
De Graafschap
21%
Match stats
| 27 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 456 | Accurate passes | 216 |
Emmen vs De Graafschap overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Emmen vs De Graafschap
| Probability | Emmen | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.6% | 15.5% | 17.9% |
| Market | 55.5% | 21.9% | 22.6% |
| Final | 58.2% | 20.3% | 21.4% |
| Edge | +11.1% | -6.4% | -4.7% |
Why Emmen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.31 vs 1.81.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Emmen below the model: +11.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
99%
2+ goals
97%
3+ goals
88%
No goals
1%
Emmen and De Graafschap expected goals
Emmen
3.31
De Graafschap
1.81
Total expected goals: 5.12
Emmen and De Graafschap attack and defence ratings
Emmen
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
1.31 +31%
De Graafschap
Attack
0.92 -8%
Defence
1.45 +45%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Emmen vs De Graafschap: result vs prediction
Emmen 1 – 2 De Graafschap
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Emmen vs De Graafschap markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 58.2% | 1.72 | +11.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.7% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 58.2% |
| Draw | 20.3% | |
| De Graafschap | 21.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 11.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.9% |
| No | 19.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win | 49.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 33.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.5% |
| 2-1 | 5.9% | |
| 3-2 | 5.9% |
Emmen vs De Graafschap stats
Emmen and De Graafschap recent form
| Emmen |
WLWWWW |
| De Graafschap |
LLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Emmen and De Graafschap going into this match
Emmen record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
De Graafschap record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emmen vs De Graafschap head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
5Emmen wins
1Draws
3De Graafschap wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Emmen | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-05 | De Graafschap | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2025-01-24 | De Graafschap | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 4-0 |
| 2024-11-25 | Emmen | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-10 | Emmen | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-31 | De Graafschap | Emmen | KNVB Beker | 2-0 |
| 2023-08-25 | De Graafschap | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2022-07-19 | De Graafschap | Emmen | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
| 2022-04-01 | De Graafschap | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Emmen vs De Graafschap odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 22.5%, away 29.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.10 | 4.10 | 2.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 4.25 | 4.18 |
| 888Sport | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 4.20 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 4.25 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.46 | 4.08 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.67 | 2.72 |
| Superbet | 2.02 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| Unibet | 1.96 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.67 ▼ -0.39
X
4.22 ▲ +0.08
2
4.10 ▲ +1.22
14 snapshots recorded, from .