Eerste Divisie
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Heracles
vs
De Graafschap
5 – 0 Full time
| 2′ | Jean-Paul N'djoli | ||
| 23′ | Maurice Wrusch | ||
| 41′ | Chafik Abbas | ||
| 45′ | Nart Ahmeti-GraincaBjorn van Zijl | ||
| 63′ | Max HauswirthThomas Bruns | ||
| 63′ | Maurice WruschMike te Wierik | ||
| 63′ | Kaya SymonsFedde De Jong | ||
| 63′ | Julian kaniaKyano Kwint | ||
| 66′ | Nolan Martens | ||
| 72′ | Tristan Van Gilst | ||
| 73′ | gabriele finocchiaroJorn Triep | ||
| 76′ | Chafik AbbasDavid Tomic | ||
| 79′ | Nolan MartensJannes Luca·Wieckhoff | ||
| 82′ | Jean-Paul N'djoli | ||
| 84′ | Djevencio van der KustStijn Bultman | ||
| 85′ | Tristan Van GilstMimeirhel Benita | ||
| 86′ | Manny Rodriguez Baldera | ||
| 89′ | Ties Wieggers | ||
| 90′ | Jean-Paul N'djoli |
Heracles
62%
Draw
19%
De Graafschap
19%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 270 | Accurate passes | 383 |
Heracles vs De Graafschap overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heracles vs De Graafschap
| Probability | Heracles | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.0% | 19.3% | 25.7% |
| Market | 64.1% | 18.8% | 17.0% |
| Final | 61.8% | 19.0% | 19.2% |
| Edge | -9.2% | +0.5% | +8.7% |
Why Heracles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
94%
3+ goals
82%
No goals
2%
Heracles and De Graafschap expected goals
Heracles
2.65
De Graafschap
1.83
Total expected goals: 4.48
Heracles and De Graafschap attack and defence ratings
Heracles
Attack
1.15 +15%
Defence
1.21 +21%
De Graafschap
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
1.32 +32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Heracles vs De Graafschap: result vs prediction
Heracles 5 – 0 De Graafschap
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heracles vs De Graafschap markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 61.8% | 1.62 | -9.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 61.8% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| De Graafschap | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.6% |
| No | 21.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 36.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 45.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.3% |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | |
| 3-1 | 6.4% |
Heracles vs De Graafschap stats
Heracles and De Graafschap recent form
| Heracles |
WWWWLL |
| De Graafschap |
LLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heracles and De Graafschap going into this match
Heracles record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 4.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
De Graafschap record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heracles vs De Graafschap head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
7Heracles wins
1Draws
2De Graafschap wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-16 | De Graafschap | Heracles | KNVB Beker | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-07 | De Graafschap | Heracles | Eerste Divisie | 5-3 |
| 2022-10-07 | Heracles | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
| 2021-07-31 | Heracles | De Graafschap | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2020-08-22 | De Graafschap | Heracles | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2019-03-30 | De Graafschap | Heracles | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2018-09-21 | Heracles | De Graafschap | Eredivisie | 4-0 |
| 2016-01-23 | Heracles | De Graafschap | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2015-10-24 | De Graafschap | Heracles | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2012-04-21 | De Graafschap | Heracles | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heracles vs De Graafschap odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.1%, draw 18.8%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.44 | 5.10 | 5.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.90 | 5.43 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.80 | 5.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.98 | 5.35 |
| SBO | 1.38 | 4.42 | 5.03 |
| Superbet | 1.41 | 5.10 | 5.85 |
| Unibet | 1.42 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.44 ▲ +0.06
X
4.90 ▼ -0.05
2
5.43 ▼ -0.96
9 snapshots recorded, from .