Garuda Lions
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Eerste Divisie · Full time ·Matchday 4

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC

1 – 4 Full time

De Vijverberg, DoetinchemReferee: Joey Kooij, Netherlands

De Graafschap 38%
Draw 23%
Almere City FC 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: De Graafschap vs Almere City FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDe GraafschapDrawAlmere City FC
Model26.9%22.5%50.6%
Market41.2%23.3%35.5%
Final37.6%23.1%39.3%
Edge-14.3%-0.8%+15.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Almere City FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Almere City FC below the model: +15.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

De Graafschap ↓ / Almere City FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 9% 9% 6% 5% 2 6% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

De Graafschap and Almere City FC expected goals

De Graafschap 1.53
Almere City FC 2.12

Total expected goals: 3.65

De Graafschap and Almere City FC attack and defence ratings

De Graafschap

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Almere City FC

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC: result vs prediction

De Graafschap 1 – 4 Almere City FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Almere City FC 39.3% 2.55 +15.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.8% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.9% 1.43 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.9% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.5% 2.02 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2De Graafschap37.6%
Draw23.1%
Almere City FC39.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.8%
Under 2.529.2%
Both teams to scoreYes69.9%
No30.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.7%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)62.4%
Handicap -1Almere City FC win30.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss49.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.2%
1-28.9%
2-26.8%

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC stats

De Graafschap and Almere City FC recent form

newest first
De Graafschap LLDDLL
Almere City FC WWDLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

De Graafschap and Almere City FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

De Graafschap record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Almere City FC record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3De Graafschap wins 3Draws 4Almere City FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-09De GraafschapAlmere City FCEerste Divisie2-2
2026-05-06Almere City FCDe GraafschapEerste Divisie3-1
2026-01-18Almere City FCDe GraafschapEerste Divisie2-0
2025-09-29De GraafschapAlmere City FCEerste Divisie3-2
2023-01-20Almere City FCDe GraafschapEerste Divisie2-2
2022-09-16De GraafschapAlmere City FCEerste Divisie1-2
2022-01-21De GraafschapAlmere City FCEerste Divisie1-0
2021-10-10Almere City FCDe GraafschapEerste Divisie1-2
2021-04-23De GraafschapAlmere City FCEerste Divisie2-2
2021-01-02Almere City FCDe GraafschapEerste Divisie1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 23.3%, away 35.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.20 4.00 2.75
1xBet 2.26 3.98 2.59
Bet365 2.25 4.00 2.70
BetVictor 2.25 3.90 2.63
Betano 2.30 4.00 2.60
Betfair 2.15 4.00 2.75
Dafabet 2.27 4.00 2.75
Marathonbet 2.26 3.98 2.59
Pinnacle 2.27 4.11 2.61
SBO 2.10 3.58 2.53
Superbet 2.25 3.90 2.72
Unibet 2.40 3.65 2.43
William Hill 2.25 3.80 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▲ +0.10
X 3.98 ▼ -0.02
2 2.61 ▼ -0.16

10 snapshots recorded, from .