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Eerste Divisie · Full time ·Matchday 4

Roda vs NAC Breda

2 – 2 Full time

Parkstad Limburg Stadion, KerkradeReferee: M. van den Kerkhof

Roda 36%
Draw 27%
NAC Breda 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Roda vs NAC Breda overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Roda vs NAC Breda

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRodaDrawNAC Breda
Model48.0%29.1%22.9%
Market32.1%26.1%41.8%
Final36.1%26.9%37.1%
Edge+15.9%+2.9%-18.9%

Confidence: Low

Why NAC Breda

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Roda ↓ / NAC Breda → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 7% 1 12% 14% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Roda and NAC Breda expected goals

Roda 1.45
NAC Breda 0.93

Total expected goals: 2.39

Roda and NAC Breda attack and defence ratings

Roda

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 0.73 -27%

NAC Breda

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Roda vs NAC Breda: result vs prediction

Roda 2 – 2 NAC Breda

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

Roda vs NAC Breda markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 NAC Breda 37.1% 2.70 -18.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.3% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 52.3% 1.91 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 77.1% 1.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Roda36.1%
Draw26.9%
NAC Breda37.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.7%
Under 2.557.3%
Both teams to scoreYes47.7%
No52.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.9%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)63.9%
Handicap -1NAC Breda win8.3%
Push (exactly one goal)14.6%
Loss77.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-012.1%
0-010.4%

Roda vs NAC Breda stats

Roda and NAC Breda recent form

newest first
Roda WWLDDL
NAC Breda WLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Roda and NAC Breda going into this match

league record before kick-off

Roda record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

NAC Breda record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Roda vs NAC Breda head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Roda wins 4Draws 4NAC Breda wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-05-17RodaNAC BredaEredivisie0-5
2024-05-13NAC BredaRodaEredivisie3-1
2024-03-23RodaNAC BredaEerste Divisie3-1
2023-09-09NAC BredaRodaEerste Divisie1-3
2023-04-29NAC BredaRodaEerste Divisie4-2
2022-08-26RodaNAC BredaEerste Divisie1-3
2022-02-04NAC BredaRodaEerste Divisie2-2
2021-09-10RodaNAC BredaEerste Divisie0-0
2021-04-16RodaNAC BredaEerste Divisie3-3
2021-01-08NAC BredaRodaEerste Divisie2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Roda vs NAC Breda odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 26.1%, away 41.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.90 3.60 2.25
1xBet 2.89 3.62 2.22
Bet365 3.00 3.60 2.20
BetVictor 2.88 3.50 2.20
Betano 2.90 3.50 2.27
Betfair 2.88 3.75 2.20
Dafabet 2.90 3.65 2.33
Marathonbet 2.88 3.62 2.20
Pinnacle 2.97 3.48 2.26
SBO 2.54 3.26 2.22
Superbet 2.82 3.55 2.30
Unibet 3.00 3.55 2.04
William Hill 2.88 3.40 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.89 ▼ -0.16
X 3.55 ▼ -0.10
2 2.22 ▲ +0.13

10 snapshots recorded, from .