Eerste Divisie · 2026-09-04T18:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

Waalwijk vs NAC Breda

4 – 2 Full time

26′			Rio·Hillen
27′			Leo Greiml
37′			Leo Greiml
45′			Rio·HillenMylan Brouwers
45′			Paul GladonGabriel Osei Misehouy
45′			Boyd LucassenMohamed Bouchouari
45′			Maximilien BalardBrahim Ghalidi
54′			Loek Postma
56′			Thijs van Leeuwen
64′			Mohamed Nassoh
66′			Brahim GhalidiImran Nazih
68′			Loek PostmaR. van Hedel
68′			Keyan Anderson Pereira VarelaYoram van der Veen
69′			Keyan Anderson Pereira Varela
75′			F. Al Mazyani
79′			Mohamed Nassoh
79′			Jochem NapJesse van de Haar
79′			Ryan FageAzzedine Dkidak
83′			Mohamed Nassoh
90′			Finn StokkersSven van der Plas
90′			Jordy de Wijs

Mandemakers Stadion, WaalwijkReferee: D. Higler

Waalwijk

38%

Draw

25%

NAC Breda

37%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	6
55	Possession %	45
3	Corners	4
17	Fouls	8
1	Offsides	1
4	Saves	1
406	Accurate passes	326

Waalwijk vs NAC Breda overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Waalwijk vs NAC Breda

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Waalwijk	Draw	NAC Breda
Model	52.7%	23.7%	23.6%
Market	33.3%	25.2%	41.5%
Final	38.2%	24.8%	37.0%
Edge	+19.4%	-1.5%	-17.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Waalwijk

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.28.
The market prices Waalwijk below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

85%

3+ goals

63%

No goals

Waalwijk and NAC Breda expected goals

Waalwijk

1.98

NAC Breda

1.28

Total expected goals: 3.26

Waalwijk and NAC Breda attack and defence ratings

Waalwijk

Attack

1.02 +2%

Defence

0.95 -5%

NAC Breda

Attack

0.90 -10%

Defence

1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Waalwijk vs NAC Breda: result vs prediction

Waalwijk 4 – 2 NAC Breda

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Vitesse vs FC OSS · 2026-09-04
Heracles v De Graafschap — match page · 2026-09-04
Emmen vs FC Volendam — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Almere City FC v Jong Ajax — match page · 2026-09-04
Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ · 2026-09-05
MVV v Roda — match page · 2026-09-06
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch — team news & stats · 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

Waalwijk, previous: Waalwijk – Jong PSV U21, 2026-08-28
Waalwijk, next: Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk prediction
NAC Breda, previous: Roda vs NAC Breda: odds and pick
NAC Breda, next: NAC Breda – Jong Utrecht, 2026-09-11

Waalwijk vs NAC Breda markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Waalwijk	38.2%	2.62	+19.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.2%	1.58	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	63.2%	1.58	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	75.2%	1.33	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	47.3%	2.11	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Waalwijk	38.2%
	Draw	24.8%
	NAC Breda	37.0%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.2%
	Under 2.5	36.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	63.2%
	No	36.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	63.0%
	12 (either side)	75.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	61.8%
Handicap -1	Waalwijk win	31.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.3%
	Loss	47.3%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.7%
	2-1	9.6%
	2-0	7.5%

Waalwijk vs NAC Breda stats

Waalwijk and NAC Breda recent form

newest first

Waalwijk	DDDDDL
NAC Breda	DWLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Waalwijk and NAC Breda going into this match

league record before kick-off

Waalwijk record

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

NAC Breda record

They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Waalwijk vs NAC Breda head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Waalwijk wins 1Draws 4NAC Breda wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2025-02-09	Waalwijk	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	5-0
2024-10-26	NAC Breda	Waalwijk	Eredivisie	4-1
2023-07-19	NAC Breda	Waalwijk	Friendlies Clubs	2-3
2020-08-18	Waalwijk	NAC Breda	Friendlies Clubs	0-2
2018-09-25	Waalwijk	NAC Breda	KNVB Beker	2-0
2017-02-10	NAC Breda	Waalwijk	Eerste Divisie	2-3
2016-09-16	Waalwijk	NAC Breda	Eerste Divisie	2-4
2014-04-27	NAC Breda	Waalwijk	Eredivisie	1-1
2013-11-01	Waalwijk	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	3-0
2013-01-26	Waalwijk	NAC Breda	Eredivisie	0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Waalwijk vs NAC Breda odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.3%, draw 25.2%, away 41.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.80	3.80	2.25
1xBet	2.84	3.65	2.23
Bet365	2.88	3.75	2.25
BetVictor	2.80	3.70	2.20
Betano	2.82	3.70	2.25
Betfair	2.70	3.90	2.25
Dafabet	2.90	3.80	2.26
Marathonbet	2.83	3.65	2.21
Pinnacle	2.90	3.81	2.26
SBO	2.52	3.38	2.18
Superbet	2.77	3.70	2.27
Unibet	2.70	3.50	2.23
William Hill	2.80	3.50	2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.10

X 3.70 ▲ +0.15

2 2.25 ▼ -0.07

10 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-31T08:10:02Z.