Eerste Divisie · 2026-09-04T18:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo

4 – 2 Full time

17′			Livio Cicero
36′			Alex SchalkM. Tsigkas
44′			Labinot Bajrami
47′			Eanna Clancy
59′			Raf VullersTijn Joosten
59′			Gabin BlancquartIsmail Oulad M'Hand
61′			Xander Jan Van Der Velde
67′			Thomas PollLovro Golic
69′			Lars de Blok
71′			Joep van der SluijsMauro Lenaerts
72′			Helgi Fróði IngasonKiton Ekoli
72′			Labinot BajramiTarik Essakkati
73′			Tijn Landheer
75′			Mohammed OdrissThomas Janssen
75′			Nassim Ait MouhouAmir rais
79′			Michel Simon LudwigPol Llonch
85′			Mauro Lenaerts
87′			Tarik Essakkati
88′			Pol Llonch
90′			Mauro Lenaerts
90′			Mauro Lenaerts

GS Staalwerken Stadion, HelmondReferee: L. Gerrets

Helmond Sport

33%

Draw

27%

VVV Venlo

40%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

20	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	10
51	Possession %	49
2	Corners	8
18	Fouls	5
1	Offsides	1
8	Saves	2
366	Accurate passes	318

Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Helmond Sport	Draw	VVV Venlo
Model	23.4%	26.7%	49.9%
Market	35.7%	27.3%	37.1%
Final	32.6%	27.1%	40.3%
Edge	-12.2%	-0.6%	+12.8%

Confidence: Low

Why VVV Venlo

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.08.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices VVV Venlo below the model: +12.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

92%

2+ goals

77%

3+ goals

52%

No goals

Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo expected goals

Helmond Sport

1.08

VVV Venlo

1.66

Total expected goals: 2.74

Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo attack and defence ratings

Helmond Sport

Attack

0.70 -30%

Defence

0.95 -5%

VVV Venlo

Attack

1.17 +17%

Defence

0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo: result vs prediction

Helmond Sport 4 – 2 VVV Venlo

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Vitesse vs FC OSS · 2026-09-04
Heracles v De Graafschap — match page · 2026-09-04
Emmen vs FC Volendam — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Waalwijk vs NAC Breda · 2026-09-04
Almere City FC v Jong Ajax — match page · 2026-09-04
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ · 2026-09-05
MVV v Roda — match page · 2026-09-06
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch — team news & stats · 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

Helmond Sport, previous: Jong Ajax – Helmond Sport, 2026-08-28
Helmond Sport, next: Helmond Sport vs Jong PSV U21: odds and pick
VVV Venlo, previous: VVV Venlo vs Emmen prediction
VVV Venlo, next: VVV Venlo v FC OSS analysis

Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	VVV Venlo	40.3%	2.48	+12.8%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51.6%	1.94	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	54.6%	1.83	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.9%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	50.1%	2.00	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Helmond Sport	32.6%
	Draw	27.1%
	VVV Venlo	40.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51.6%
	Under 2.5	48.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	54.6%
	No	45.4%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.7%
	12 (either side)	72.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.4%
Handicap -1	VVV Venlo win	27.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.5%
	Loss	50.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.7%
	1-2	9.6%
	0-1	9.6%

Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo stats

Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo recent form

newest first

Helmond Sport	LDLDLW
VVV Venlo	WWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo going into this match

league record before kick-off

Helmond Sport record

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

VVV Venlo record

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Helmond Sport wins 3Draws 4VVV Venlo wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-17	Helmond Sport	VVV Venlo	Eerste Divisie	2-0
2025-09-13	VVV Venlo	Helmond Sport	Eerste Divisie	2-1
2025-04-13	VVV Venlo	Helmond Sport	Eerste Divisie	4-1
2024-08-30	Helmond Sport	VVV Venlo	Eerste Divisie	3-0
2024-03-01	Helmond Sport	VVV Venlo	Eerste Divisie	1-1
2023-10-01	VVV Venlo	Helmond Sport	Eerste Divisie	0-4
2023-05-05	Helmond Sport	VVV Venlo	Eerste Divisie	1-1
2023-01-06	VVV Venlo	Helmond Sport	Eerste Divisie	1-1
2022-03-14	Helmond Sport	VVV Venlo	Eerste Divisie	0-3
2021-09-24	VVV Venlo	Helmond Sport	Eerste Divisie	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 27.3%, away 37.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.55	3.50	2.55
1xBet	2.63	3.40	2.47
Bet365	2.70	3.40	2.50
BetVictor	2.55	3.60	2.40
Betano	2.65	3.30	2.57
Betfair	2.50	3.60	2.50
Dafabet	2.60	3.60	2.55
Marathonbet	2.63	3.40	2.47
Pinnacle	2.71	3.50	2.53
SBO	2.39	3.23	2.36
Superbet	2.57	3.50	2.52
Unibet	2.50	3.35	2.45
William Hill	2.62	3.30	2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.60 ▲ +0.05

X 3.40 —

2 2.50 ▲ +0.04

10 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-31T08:10:02Z.