Jong Ajax
vs
Helmond Sport
3 – 2 Full time
Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport
| Probability | Jong Ajax | Draw | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.8% | 27.7% | 34.5% |
| Market | 43.8% | 24.8% | 31.4% |
| Final | 42.3% | 25.5% | 32.2% |
| Edge | -6.0% | +2.9% | +3.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jong Ajax and Helmond Sport expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Jong Ajax and Helmond Sport attack and defence ratings
Jong Ajax
Helmond Sport
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport: result vs prediction
Jong Ajax 3 – 2 Helmond Sport
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Ajax | 42.3% | 2.36 | -6.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Ajax | 42.3% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Helmond Sport | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong Ajax win | 18.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 62.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport stats
Jong Ajax and Helmond Sport recent form
| Jong Ajax |
LLLLWL |
| Helmond Sport |
DLDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jong Ajax and Helmond Sport going into this match
Jong Ajax record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Helmond Sport record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Jong Ajax | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 5-1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Helmond Sport | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-28 | Jong Ajax | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-04 | Helmond Sport | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-19 | Helmond Sport | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2023-11-27 | Jong Ajax | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 4-1 |
| 2023-01-27 | Helmond Sport | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-07 | Jong Ajax | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2021-12-20 | Jong Ajax | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-01 | Helmond Sport | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.8%, draw 24.8%, away 31.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.74 | 2.97 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.74 | 2.96 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 4.07 | 2.91 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.31 | 2.71 |
| Superbet | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Unibet | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .