Jong AZ vs MVV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jong AZ vs MVV
| Probability | Jong AZ | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.5% | 26.8% | 30.7% |
| Market | 52.9% | 23.1% | 24.0% |
| Final | 50.3% | 24.1% | 25.7% |
| Edge | -10.4% | +3.7% | +6.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jong AZ and MVV expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Jong AZ and MVV attack and defence ratings
Jong AZ
MVV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Jong AZ vs MVV: result vs prediction
Jong AZ 1 – 2 MVV
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jong AZ vs MVV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong AZ | 50.3% | 1.99 | -10.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong AZ | 50.3% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| MVV | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% |
| No | 40.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong AZ win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Jong AZ vs MVV stats
Jong AZ and MVV recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jong AZ and MVV going into this match
Jong AZ record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
MVV record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Jong AZ vs MVV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Jong AZ | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-21 | MVV | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-14 | MVV | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-02 | Jong AZ | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2024-05-03 | Jong AZ | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2023-12-01 | MVV | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 4-0 |
| 2023-04-28 | MVV | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2022-08-08 | Jong AZ | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2022-03-14 | MVV | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2021-11-05 | Jong AZ | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jong AZ vs MVV odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.9%, draw 23.1%, away 24.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.77 | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 4.20 | 3.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 4.20 | 3.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.73 | 4.33 |
| SBO | 1.71 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| Superbet | 1.76 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Unibet | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .