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Eerste Divisie · Full time ·Matchday 4

FC Eindhoven vs Heracles

1 – 3 Full time

Jan Louwers Stadion, EindhovenReferee: S. Teuben

FC Eindhoven 26%
Draw 23%
Heracles 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Eindhoven vs Heracles overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Eindhoven vs Heracles

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC EindhovenDrawHeracles
Model36.2%22.6%41.3%
Market22.0%22.5%55.4%
Final25.6%22.5%51.9%
Edge+14.1%+0.1%-14.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Heracles

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Eindhoven ↓ / Heracles → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 8% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 3 5% 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

FC Eindhoven and Heracles expected goals

FC Eindhoven 1.86
Heracles 2.00

Total expected goals: 3.87

FC Eindhoven and Heracles attack and defence ratings

FC Eindhoven

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Heracles

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Eindhoven vs Heracles: result vs prediction

FC Eindhoven 1 – 3 Heracles

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Eerste Divisie

Before and after this match

FC Eindhoven vs Heracles markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Heracles 51.9% 1.93 -14.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.4% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.0% 1.35 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.5% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.6% 1.71 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Eindhoven25.6%
Draw22.5%
Heracles51.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.4%
Under 2.525.6%
Both teams to scoreYes74.0%
No26.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.1%
12 (either side)77.5%
X2 (draw or away)74.4%
Handicap -1Heracles win23.5%
Push (exactly one goal)17.9%
Loss58.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.5%
1-27.8%
2-27.3%

FC Eindhoven vs Heracles stats

FC Eindhoven and Heracles recent form

newest first
FC Eindhoven LLWWLL
Heracles WWWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Eindhoven and Heracles going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Eindhoven record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Heracles record

  • They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 4.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

FC Eindhoven vs Heracles head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Eindhoven vs Heracles odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.0%, draw 22.5%, away 55.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 4.20 4.20 1.70
1xBet 4.22 4.20 1.67
Bet365 4.20 3.90 1.70
BetVictor 4.20 4.10 1.67
Betano 4.15 4.05 1.72
Betfair 4.10 4.20 1.67
Dafabet 4.40 4.20 1.71
Marathonbet 4.25 4.20 1.65
Pinnacle 4.46 4.13 1.65
SBO 3.92 3.76 1.60
Unibet 4.40 4.00 1.58
William Hill 4.20 3.90 1.67

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.20 ▲ +0.36
X 4.12 ▲ +0.09
2 1.67 ▼ -0.08

8 snapshots recorded, from .