Den Bosch
vs
Vitesse
1 – 4 Full time
Den Bosch vs Vitesse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Den Bosch vs Vitesse
| Probability | Den Bosch | Draw | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.1% | 22.8% | 45.0% |
| Market | 37.4% | 24.3% | 38.2% |
| Final | 36.1% | 24.0% | 39.9% |
| Edge | -5.3% | -1.5% | +6.8% |
Why Vitesse
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vitesse below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Den Bosch and Vitesse expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.75
Den Bosch and Vitesse attack and defence ratings
Den Bosch
Vitesse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Den Bosch vs Vitesse: result vs prediction
Den Bosch 1 – 4 Vitesse
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Den Bosch vs Vitesse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 39.9% | 2.50 | +6.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 36.1% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Vitesse | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% |
| No | 27.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Den Bosch vs Vitesse stats
Den Bosch and Vitesse recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Den Bosch and Vitesse going into this match
Vitesse record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Den Bosch vs Vitesse head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | Den Bosch | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Vitesse | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-09 | Vitesse | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-18 | Den Bosch | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Den Bosch vs Vitesse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 24.3%, away 38.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.38 |
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.80 | 2.43 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 4.00 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.85 | 2.46 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.80 | 2.43 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 4.11 | 2.42 |
| SBO | 2.41 | 3.40 | 2.27 |
| Superbet | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.42 |
| Unibet | 2.43 | 3.65 | 2.40 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.80 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .