Eerste Divisie
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Almere City FC
vs
Jong Ajax
0 – 1 Full time
| 45′ | Mark VerkuijlTijn Peters | ||
| 49′ | Mohamed Jabou AbdallaLevi Acheampong | ||
| 60′ | Mees HoedemakersMilan de Haan | ||
| 60′ | Teun BijleveldJereno van Gom | ||
| 60′ | Marley DorsByron Burgering | ||
| 68′ | H. el DahriJamie Jacobs | ||
| 73′ | Jano Monserrate | ||
| 75′ | emre unuvarJeshurun Simeon | ||
| 75′ | Jano MonserrateJinairo Johnson | ||
| 75′ | Damian van BruggenMartin Jean Wasinski | ||
| 75′ | Diego Pugno | ||
| 81′ | James LawrenceBas Huisman | ||
| 82′ | Emanuel Poku | ||
| 82′ | Pharell NashAnass Moumane | ||
| 84′ | Marvyn Muzungu | ||
| 90′ | Levi Acheampong | ||
| 90′ | Milan de Haan |
Almere City FC
66%
Draw
18%
Jong Ajax
16%
Match stats
| 25 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 216 | Accurate passes | 368 |
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax
| Probability | Almere City FC | Draw | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.6% | 15.2% | 12.2% |
| Market | 63.4% | 18.9% | 17.7% |
| Final | 65.7% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| Edge | +9.2% | -3.7% | -5.5% |
Why Almere City FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.06 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Almere City FC below the model: +9.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
93%
3+ goals
81%
No goals
2%
Almere City FC and Jong Ajax expected goals
Almere City FC
3.06
Jong Ajax
1.27
Total expected goals: 4.33
Almere City FC and Jong Ajax attack and defence ratings
Almere City FC
Attack
1.28 +28%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Jong Ajax
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.37 +37%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax: result vs prediction
Almere City FC 0 – 1 Jong Ajax
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 65.7% | 1.52 | +9.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 65.7% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Jong Ajax | 16.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% |
| No | 30.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win | 54.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 27.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | |
| 3-0 | 6.3% |
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax stats
Almere City FC and Jong Ajax recent form
| Almere City FC |
WWWDLL |
| Jong Ajax |
DWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almere City FC and Jong Ajax going into this match
Almere City FC record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Jong Ajax record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
7Almere City FC wins
0Draws
2Jong Ajax wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Jong Ajax | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-05 | Almere City FC | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
| 2023-03-17 | Jong Ajax | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 0-2 |
| 2022-10-14 | Almere City FC | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 2-3 |
| 2022-02-21 | Jong Ajax | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2021-09-17 | Almere City FC | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 2-4 |
| 2021-04-30 | Almere City FC | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2020-10-30 | Jong Ajax | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
| 2020-08-01 | Almere City FC | Jong Ajax | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.4%, draw 18.9%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.45 | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.85 | 5.33 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 5.25 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.80 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.95 | 5.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 5.03 | 5.39 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.46 | 4.77 |
| Superbet | 1.45 | 4.85 | 5.60 |
| Unibet | 1.42 | 4.75 | 5.20 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.45 ▲ +0.05
X
4.85 ▼ -0.20
2
5.20 ▼ -0.76
9 snapshots recorded, from .