VVV Venlo
vs
De Graafschap
2 – 1 Full time
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap overview
Garuda Lions analysis: VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap
| Probability | VVV Venlo | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 22.3% | 29.5% |
| Market | 31.7% | 24.9% | 43.4% |
| Final | 35.8% | 24.2% | 39.9% |
| Edge | +16.4% | -2.5% | -13.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
VVV Venlo and De Graafschap expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.80
VVV Venlo and De Graafschap attack and defence ratings
VVV Venlo
De Graafschap
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap: result vs prediction
VVV Venlo 2 – 1 De Graafschap
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 39.9% | 2.51 | -13.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VVV Venlo | 35.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| De Graafschap | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% |
| No | 27.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | De Graafschap win | 14.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.8% | |
| Loss | 70.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap stats
VVV Venlo and De Graafschap recent form
| VVV Venlo |
WLWLDL |
| De Graafschap |
LDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
VVV Venlo and De Graafschap going into this match
VVV Venlo record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
De Graafschap record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | VVV Venlo | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 3-3 |
| 2025-08-08 | De Graafschap | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.7%, draw 24.8%, away 43.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.95 | 3.78 | 2.13 |
| 888Sport | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 4.00 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.85 | 2.23 |
| Marathonbet | 2.94 | 3.78 | 2.11 |
| Pinnacle | 3.03 | 3.92 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 2.68 | 3.39 | 2.16 |
| Superbet | 2.87 | 3.70 | 2.20 |
| Unibet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .