Heracles
vs
Jong AZ
3 – 2 Full time
| 6′ | Sem Scheperman | ||
| 17′ | Max Hauswirth | ||
| 20′ | Hessel de Wit | ||
| 38′ | Jerolldino Armantrading | ||
| 43′ | Tycho De Wit | ||
| 53′ | Jean-Paul N'djoli | ||
| 56′ | Manny Rodriguez BalderaThomas Bruns | ||
| 61′ | Jerolldino ArmantradingKevin toppenberg | ||
| 69′ | Sem Scheperman | ||
| 75′ | Sem SchepermanJeff Reine-Adélaïde | ||
| 75′ | Tristan Van GilstMike te Wierik | ||
| 80′ | Hessel de WitBogdan Budko | ||
| 88′ | Tycho De WitSaviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe | ||
| 90′ | Chafik AbbasMario Engels | ||
| 90′ | Maurice WruschMimeirhel Benita |
Match stats
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 382 | Accurate passes | 209 |
Heracles vs Jong AZ overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heracles vs Jong AZ
| Probability | Heracles | Draw | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.5% | 18.4% | 25.1% |
| Market | 71.7% | 16.3% | 12.1% |
| Final | 67.9% | 16.8% | 15.3% |
| Edge | -15.2% | +2.2% | +13.0% |
Why Heracles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.82 vs 1.92.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heracles and Jong AZ expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.74
Heracles and Jong AZ attack and defence ratings
Heracles
Jong AZ
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Heracles vs Jong AZ: result vs prediction
Heracles 3 – 2 Jong AZ
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heracles vs Jong AZ markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 67.9% | 1.47 | -15.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.2% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 67.9% |
| Draw | 16.8% | |
| Jong AZ | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.7% |
| No | 19.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 38.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 43.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 6.7% |
| 2-2 | 6.4% | |
| 3-1 | 6.3% |
Heracles vs Jong AZ stats
Heracles and Jong AZ recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heracles and Jong AZ going into this match
Heracles record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 4.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Jong AZ record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Heracles vs Jong AZ head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-10 | Heracles | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2023-01-06 | Jong AZ | Heracles | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heracles vs Jong AZ odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.9%, draw 16.7%, away 14.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.44 | 5.20 | 5.75 |
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 5.70 | 7.95 |
| 888Sport | 1.40 | 5.00 | 5.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.75 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 5.40 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.50 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 5.75 | 8.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 6.08 | 7.31 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.62 | 5.13 |
| Superbet | 1.40 | 5.25 | 5.85 |
| Unibet | 1.33 | 5.20 | 6.25 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .