Almere City FC
vs
Heracles
1 – 0 Full time
| 60′ | H. el DahriJamie Jacobs | ||
| 60′ | Bas HuismanByron Burgering | ||
| 69′ | Max HauswirthThomas Bruns | ||
| 73′ | Mees HoedemakersOlivier de Nijs | ||
| 73′ | Emanuel PokuMilan de Haan | ||
| 77′ | Maurice WruschJeff Reine-Adélaïde | ||
| 80′ | Martin Jean Wasinski | ||
| 82′ | Martin Jean WasinskiDamian van Bruggen | ||
| 85′ | Tristan Van GilstMike te Wierik | ||
| 85′ | Damon MiraniMario Engels | ||
| 85′ | Manny Rodriguez BalderaVincent Poppler |
Match stats
| 4 | Shots | 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 40 | Possession % | 60 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 216 | Accurate passes | 328 |
Almere City FC vs Heracles overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almere City FC vs Heracles
| Probability | Almere City FC | Draw | Heracles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.5% | 20.9% | 22.6% |
| Market | 29.8% | 23.5% | 46.7% |
| Final | 36.5% | 22.9% | 40.7% |
| Edge | +26.7% | -2.6% | -24.0% |
Why Heracles
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almere City FC and Heracles expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.84
Almere City FC and Heracles attack and defence ratings
Almere City FC
Heracles
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Almere City FC vs Heracles: result vs prediction
Almere City FC 1 – 0 Heracles
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almere City FC vs Heracles markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 40.7% | 2.46 | -24.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 36.5% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Heracles | 40.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% |
| No | 29.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 10.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.3% | |
| Loss | 77.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 3-1 | 7.0% |
Almere City FC vs Heracles stats
Almere City FC and Heracles recent form
| Almere City FC |
WLWWWD |
| Heracles |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almere City FC and Heracles going into this match
Almere City FC record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heracles record
- They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 4.0 goals per match.
- They average 4.3 goals per game on the road against 3.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Almere City FC vs Heracles head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Almere City FC | Heracles | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-15 | Heracles | Almere City FC | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-03 | Heracles | Almere City FC | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-26 | Almere City FC | Heracles | Eredivisie | 0-5 |
| 2023-03-31 | Heracles | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-28 | Almere City FC | Heracles | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almere City FC vs Heracles odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.8%, draw 23.5%, away 46.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 3.82 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 4.00 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 3.18 | 3.82 | 1.96 |
| Pinnacle | 3.29 | 3.93 | 2.03 |
| SBO | 2.89 | 3.61 | 1.98 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .