De Graafschap
vs
NAC Breda
1 – 2 Full time
| 18′ | Charles-Andreas Brym | ||
| 40′ | Charles-Andreas Brym | ||
| 44′ | Mohamed Nassoh | ||
| 45′ | Julian kania | ||
| 56′ | Thomas Kok | ||
| 58′ | Bjorn van Zijlgabriele finocchiaro | ||
| 58′ | Julian kaniaKyano Kwint | ||
| 63′ | Thomas Kok | ||
| 64′ | Charles-Andreas BrymFredrik Jensen | ||
| 69′ | Toivo MeroNathan Charles Kaninda | ||
| 69′ | Kaya SymonsJannes Luca·Wieckhoff | ||
| 73′ | Jannes Van HeckeBrahim Ghalidi | ||
| 82′ | Jan Van den Bergh | ||
| 84′ | Kamal SowahImran Nazih | ||
| 84′ | Boyd LucassenGabriel Osei Misehouy | ||
| 84′ | Rowan BesselinkNic Hartgers |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 7 | Saves | 2 |
| 305 | Accurate passes | 325 |
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: De Graafschap vs NAC Breda
| Probability | De Graafschap | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.5% | 21.5% | 36.0% |
| Market | 28.5% | 23.2% | 48.3% |
| Final | 32.0% | 22.8% | 45.2% |
| Edge | +14.0% | -1.7% | -12.3% |
Why NAC Breda
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
De Graafschap and NAC Breda expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.17
De Graafschap and NAC Breda attack and defence ratings
De Graafschap
NAC Breda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda: result vs prediction
De Graafschap 1 – 2 NAC Breda
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 45.2% | 2.21 | -12.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 32.0% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| NAC Breda | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.3% |
| No | 22.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.4% |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda stats
De Graafschap and NAC Breda recent form
| De Graafschap |
WLLLLD |
| NAC Breda |
LLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
De Graafschap and NAC Breda going into this match
De Graafschap record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NAC Breda record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-02 | NAC Breda | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-03 | De Graafschap | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-10 | NAC Breda | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2022-09-09 | De Graafschap | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2022-03-11 | NAC Breda | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2021-08-20 | De Graafschap | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2021-03-28 | NAC Breda | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 3-1 |
| 2020-11-11 | De Graafschap | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2019-10-21 | NAC Breda | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.5%, draw 23.2%, away 48.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.26 | 3.96 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 4.00 | 1.93 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 4.05 | 1.93 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 4.20 | 1.90 |
| Marathonbet | 3.25 | 3.96 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 3.32 | 4.18 | 1.95 |
| SBO | 2.93 | 3.54 | 1.98 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .