Heracles
vs
Waalwijk
3 – 0 Full time
Heracles vs Waalwijk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heracles vs Waalwijk
| Probability | Heracles | Draw | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.4% | 23.2% | 29.4% |
| Market | 64.3% | 19.7% | 16.0% |
| Final | 60.1% | 20.6% | 19.3% |
| Edge | -16.9% | +3.5% | +13.4% |
Why Heracles
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heracles and Waalwijk expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.60
Heracles and Waalwijk attack and defence ratings
Heracles
Waalwijk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Heracles vs Waalwijk: result vs prediction
Heracles 3 – 0 Waalwijk
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heracles vs Waalwijk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 60.1% | 1.66 | -16.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 60.1% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| Waalwijk | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% |
| No | 30.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 52.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Heracles vs Waalwijk stats
Heracles and Waalwijk recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heracles and Waalwijk going into this match
Heracles record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waalwijk record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Heracles vs Waalwijk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Heracles | Waalwijk | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Waalwijk | Heracles | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Heracles | Waalwijk | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-05 | Heracles | Waalwijk | Eredivisie | 0-5 |
| 2024-01-12 | Waalwijk | Heracles | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2022-05-11 | Waalwijk | Heracles | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-26 | Heracles | Waalwijk | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2021-07-30 | Heracles | Waalwijk | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2021-02-21 | Waalwijk | Heracles | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2020-10-17 | Heracles | Waalwijk | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heracles vs Waalwijk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.3%, draw 19.7%, away 16.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.75 | 5.56 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.65 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 4.85 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 5.04 | 5.88 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 4.37 | 5.22 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .