Waalwijk
vs
FC Volendam
Garuda Lions Prediction: Waalwijk
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
| Probability | Waalwijk | Draw | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.5% | 24.4% | 31.1% |
| Market | 47.1% | 23.7% | 29.2% |
| Final | 46.4% | 23.9% | 29.7% |
| Edge | -2.6% | +0.7% | +1.9% |
Why Waalwijk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.52.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam match preview
Waalwijk enters this matchup with a recent form of L-D-L-W-W-W, showcasing a mix of results but a strong finish. Their expected goals stand at 1.85, indicating a solid attacking performance. In contrast, FC Volendam has had a fluctuating recent form of W-L-W-L-W-L, with an expected goals tally of 1.52.
The probabilities suggest a 48% chance of a Waalwijk victory, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance for FC Volendam. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 2-1 in favor of Waalwijk, with a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Waalwijk and FC Volendam expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Waalwijk and FC Volendam attack and defence ratings
Waalwijk
FC Volendam
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 46.4% | 2.15 | -2.6% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 46.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| FC Volendam | 29.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam stats
Waalwijk and FC Volendam recent form
| Waalwijk |
LDLWWW |
| FC Volendam |
WLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Waalwijk and FC Volendam season so far
Waalwijk record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Volendam record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Waalwijk | FC Volendam | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | FC Volendam | Waalwijk | Eredivisie | 3-2 |
| 2023-10-21 | Waalwijk | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2023-05-05 | Waalwijk | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
| 2023-01-14 | FC Volendam | Waalwijk | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2019-02-22 | Waalwijk | FC Volendam | Eerste Divisie | 3-3 |
| 2018-10-05 | FC Volendam | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2018-04-13 | FC Volendam | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie | 0-1 |
| 2017-12-15 | Waalwijk | FC Volendam | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
| 2017-03-31 | Waalwijk | FC Volendam | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 23.8%, away 28.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.96 | 3.16 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.95 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.96 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.87 | 3.22 |
| SBO | 1.94 | 3.45 | 2.91 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .