De Graafschap
vs
Waalwijk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Waalwijk
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
| Probability | De Graafschap | Draw | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.1% | 24.6% | 44.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.1% | 24.6% | 44.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Waalwijk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.51.
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk match preview
De Graafschap faces Waalwijk in an Eerste Divisie matchup on October 23, 2026. According to our model, De Graafschap has a 31% probability of winning, while Waalwijk stands at 44%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Waalwijk, with a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game, with a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows De Graafschap with a record of W-D-W-L-W-L, while Waalwijk has performed better with L-D-L-W-W-W. The expected goals for De Graafschap is 1.51, compared to Waalwijk's 1.82. In their last two encounters, each team has one win, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
De Graafschap and Waalwijk expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
De Graafschap and Waalwijk attack and defence ratings
De Graafschap
Waalwijk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 31.1% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Waalwijk | 44.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% |
| No | 33.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk stats
De Graafschap and Waalwijk recent form
| De Graafschap |
WDWLWL |
| Waalwijk |
LDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
De Graafschap and Waalwijk season so far
De Graafschap record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waalwijk record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | De Graafschap | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie | 2-4 |
| 2025-11-09 | Waalwijk | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.