Almere City FC
vs
Roda
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almere City FC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Almere City FC vs Roda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almere City FC vs Roda
| Probability | Almere City FC | Draw | Roda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 29.5% | 15.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.7% | 29.5% | 15.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Almere City FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Almere City FC vs Roda match preview
Almere City FC faces Roda in the Eerste Divisie, with the model indicating a 55% probability of a home win for Almere City FC, while Roda has a 16% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Almere City FC, with an expected goals tally of 1.42 for Almere and 0.65 for Roda. Recent form shows Almere City FC with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Roda has two wins and four draws.
In their last two encounters, Almere City FC has not secured a win, with Roda winning both matches. The model suggests a 34% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance for both teams to score. Given these statistics, Almere City FC appears to have the upper hand, although Roda's past performance against them adds an interesting dynamic to the matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almere City FC and Roda expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Almere City FC and Roda attack and defence ratings
Almere City FC
Roda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almere City FC vs Roda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 54.7% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Roda | 15.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.2% |
| No | 62.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.5% | |
| Loss | 45.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.8% | |
| 2-0 | 12.8% |
Almere City FC vs Roda stats
Almere City FC and Roda recent form
| Almere City FC |
WWLWWL |
| Roda |
DLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almere City FC and Roda season so far
Almere City FC record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Roda record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Almere City FC vs Roda head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Almere City FC | Roda | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-20 | Roda | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.