NAC Breda
vs
Heracles
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heracles
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
NAC Breda vs Heracles overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NAC Breda vs Heracles
| Probability | NAC Breda | Draw | Heracles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.7% | 23.4% | 42.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.7% | 23.4% | 42.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
NAC Breda vs Heracles match preview
NAC Breda hosts Heracles in the Eerste Divisie with kickoff set for October 23, 2026. According to our model, NAC Breda has a 34% chance of winning, while Heracles is favored with a 43% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% probability of both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, NAC Breda has recorded four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Heracles has also shown strong performance with four wins, one draw, and one loss. The expected goals for the match indicate NAC Breda at 1.70 and Heracles at 1.93, suggesting a competitive encounter based on their recent performances and statistical forecasts.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NAC Breda and Heracles expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.64
NAC Breda and Heracles attack and defence ratings
NAC Breda
Heracles
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
NAC Breda vs Heracles markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 33.7% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Heracles | 42.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.8% |
| No | 29.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
NAC Breda vs Heracles stats
NAC Breda and Heracles recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NAC Breda and Heracles season so far
NAC Breda record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Heracles record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NAC Breda vs Heracles head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Heracles | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-29 | NAC Breda | Heracles | KNVB Beker | 1-4 |
| 2025-09-20 | NAC Breda | Heracles | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.