Den Bosch
vs
MVV
Garuda Lions Prediction: Den Bosch
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Den Bosch vs MVV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Den Bosch vs MVV
| Probability | Den Bosch | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.5% | 25.5% | 21.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.5% | 25.5% | 21.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Den Bosch
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Den Bosch vs MVV match preview
Den Bosch is set to face MVV in the Eerste Divisie on October 23, 2026, with a kickoff at 18:00 UTC. According to our model, Den Bosch has a 53% chance of winning, while MVV stands at 21%, and a draw is estimated at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Den Bosch, with a 10% probability. The expected goals for Den Bosch are 1.78, compared to MVV's 1.05, indicating a stronger offensive outlook for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Den Bosch has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while MVV has struggled, with only one win and four losses in the same period. The head-to-head record in their last two encounters shows one win for each team, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead. Both teams have a 55% chance of scoring, and there is a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Den Bosch and MVV expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Den Bosch and MVV attack and defence ratings
Den Bosch
MVV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Den Bosch vs MVV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 53.5% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| MVV | 21.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% |
| No | 44.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Den Bosch win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 46.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.4% |
Den Bosch vs MVV stats
Den Bosch and MVV recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Den Bosch and MVV season so far
Den Bosch record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
MVV record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Den Bosch vs MVV head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Den Bosch | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-16 | MVV | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.