MVV
vs
Excelsior
0 – 3 Full time
| 8′ | E. Sierra | ||
| 11′ | N. MatougO. Zimuangana | ||
| 15′ | I. Yegoian | ||
| 60′ | I. Yegoian | ||
| 61′ | D. van VianenV. Sulzbacher | ||
| 61′ | N. NaujoksA. Thorsteinsson | ||
| 61′ | M. DominguezD. Garden | ||
| 70′ | I. Silva TimasA. Sliti | ||
| 75′ | T. VerheijenM. Luijendijk | ||
| 75′ | Y. LiesdekT. Bomble | ||
| 89′ | A. Sliti | ||
| 90′ | I. YegoianQ. Kraaijvanger |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 59 | Possession % | 41 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 424 | Accurate passes | 276 |
MVV vs Excelsior overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MVV vs Excelsior
| Probability | MVV | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.9% | 24.1% | 51.0% |
| Market | 14.9% | 19.4% | 65.8% |
| Final | 17.4% | 20.6% | 62.1% |
| Edge | +2.5% | +1.2% | -3.7% |
Why Excelsior
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.31.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
MVV and Excelsior expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
MVV and Excelsior attack and defence ratings
MVV
Excelsior
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
MVV vs Excelsior: result vs prediction
MVV 0 – 3 Excelsior
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
MVV vs Excelsior markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 62.1% | 1.61 | -3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MVV | 17.4% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| Excelsior | 62.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.3% |
MVV vs Excelsior stats
MVV vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | MVV | Excelsior | Eerste Divisie | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-18 | Excelsior | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
| 2022-10-19 | Excelsior | MVV | KNVB Beker | 5-1 |
| 2022-04-15 | MVV | Excelsior | Eerste Divisie | 1-1 |
| 2021-12-10 | Excelsior | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2021-02-20 | MVV | Excelsior | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-19 | MVV | Excelsior | KNVB Beker | 2-2 |
| 2020-10-16 | Excelsior | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
| 2020-03-06 | Excelsior | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 3-0 |
| 2019-10-18 | MVV | Excelsior | Eerste Divisie | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
MVV vs Excelsior odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.9%, draw 19.4%, away 65.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.26 | 4.75 | 1.41 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 4.75 | 1.42 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 5.80 | 4.65 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| Dafabet | 6.20 | 5.00 | 1.46 |
| Marathonbet | 6.20 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| SBO | 5.42 | 4.32 | 1.37 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .