Fortuna Sittard
vs
Excelsior
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortuna Sittard
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.73.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Fortuna Sittard is the favourite, not a value bet.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
| Probability | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.2% | 22.4% | 31.4% |
| Market | 40.0% | 26.3% | 33.7% |
| Final | 41.5% | 25.3% | 33.1% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -1.0% | -0.6% |
Why Fortuna Sittard
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.3% per unit staked (our 41.5% × 2.40 − 1).
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior match preview
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior are set to face off in an Eredivisie clash, with Fortuna Sittard holding a slight edge in the 1X2 probabilities at 38%, compared to Excelsior's 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Fortuna Sittard, with an expected goals tally of 2.04 for them and 1.71 for Excelsior. Both teams are projected to score, with a 72% likelihood for over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Fortuna Sittard has recorded a mixed bag of results, with two wins in their last six matches (D-W-L-W-W-L), while Excelsior has struggled, managing just one win in their last six outings (L-L-D-L-D-W). The head-to-head record is evenly matched, with each team having one victory in their last two encounters.
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior team news
Fortuna Sittard news
- I. Marquez — injury
- J. Dahlhaus — inactive
- R. Bayram — knee injury
- Y. Oukili — groin injury
Excelsior news
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.84
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 41.5% | 2.41 | +1.6% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 41.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Excelsior | 33.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.0% |
| No | 27.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortuna Sittard win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior stats
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior recent form
| Fortuna Sittard |
DDWLWW |
| Excelsior |
LLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior season so far
Fortuna Sittard record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Excelsior | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.0%, draw 26.2%, away 33.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.71 | 2.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.50 | 2.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.57 | 2.83 |
| SBO | 2.13 | 3.30 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .